Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is selling at 106.41 up 1.70, quiet unexpectedly. Inventories today showed a smaller increase than expected (see full details below) and not much has changed in the geopolitical arena, with Iran still on the front burner. In the US, the ADP jobs reports was very positive.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged just less than 14.6 million barrels per day during the week ending March 2, 18 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 83.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, 766 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 576 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 171 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 345.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year

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Economic Events: ( GMT )

WEEKLY

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 ( GMT )

06:30     EUR       French Non-Farm Payrolls            -0.1%                    -0.2%    

French Non-farm Payrolls  measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                          0.2%                      -0.4%

The Consumer Price Index  ( CPI ) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

12:00     GBP      Interest Rate Decision                   0.50%                   0.50%

Bank of England  ( BOE ) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                             

12:45     EUR        Interest Rate Decision                  1.00%                   1.00%

The six members of the  European Central Bank  (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.                      

 13:15    CAD      Housing Starts                                    199K                      198K       

Housing starts  measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                      350K                     351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims            3385K                 3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims  measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

14:00     CAD      Interest Rate Decision                   1.00%                    1.00%                   

Bank of Canada  (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Classic 102.653 103.492 104.853 105.692 107.053 107.892 109.253
Fibonacci 103.492 104.332 104.851 105.692 106.532 107.051 107.892
Camarilla 105.610 105.812 106.013 105.692 106.417 106.618 106.820
Woodie's - 103.623 105.115 105.823 107.315 108.023 -
DeMark's - - 107.473 105.901 105.273 - -



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: BOE , CPI , GMT

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