Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 5, 2012, Forecast

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Economic Events: ( GMT )

WEEKLY

08:00             GBP       Halifax House Price Index (MoM)                           0.1%                      0.6%

The Halifax House Price Index measures the change in the price of homes and properties financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland ( HBOS ), one of the U.K.'s largest mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

  08:15           CHF       CPI (MoM)

The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                                                                                             

 08:15            CHF        Retail Sales (YoY)

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.                                                                                                   

09:30             GBP      Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company's performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.                                                                                                

  10:00            EUR        Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.                                                                                                   

  15:00            USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

The Institute of Supply Management ( ISM ) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.

"Crude

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 5, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to fall from highs over 110.00 earlier this week. Crude closed the week at 106.54 down 2.30. Crude was falling on Thursday when rumors of an explosion of an Egyptian pipeline drove prices back up. The rumors turned out to be false calming the markets. Recently there has been a lot of rhetoric coming from Iran as well as aggressive attitudes from Israel and pressures from the US and EU while the embargo continues to have its effects. As the noise turned down, investors were less worried about supply disruptions. Also the release of February OPEC data shows an increase in production by OPEC members to offset the loss of oil from Iran and Libya is coming back on line faster than anticipated. Inventories earlier in the week were higher than expected also. Compounded by rumors that the Obama Administration might release oil from the strategic reserves, helped push prices down. On Friday, the USD surged pushing down commodities traded in US currency.

""

A very quiet Friday for Economic Data: actual v. forecast

 

NZD

   

ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

     

1.1%

   
 

EUR

   

German Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.5%

 

0.1%

   
 

GBP

   

Construction PMI 

54.3

 

51.3

 

51.4

   
 

EUR

   

PPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.5%

 

-0.2%

   
 

CAD

   

GDP (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

   

 

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 05  10:10  Norway  Bond auction

Mar 06  10:10  Greece  Auctions 6M T-bills

Mar 06  10:15  Austria  Bond auction

Mar 06  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt

Mar 06  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 15

Mar 07  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 07  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07  10.30  UK  Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08  16:00  US

Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar

13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

Crude Oil Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
Classic 102.500 104.165 105.370 107.035 108.240 109.905 111.110
Fibonacci 104.165 105.261 105.939 107.035 108.131 108.809 109.905
Camarilla 105.786 106.049 106.312 107.035 106.838 107.101 107.364
Woodie's - 104.050 105.140 106.920 108.010 109.790 -
DeMark's - - 107.638 106.734 104.768 - -



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: CPI , GMT , HBOS , ISM

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