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Crude oil drops on weak global outlook

By Emerging Money October 23, 2012, 03:30:50 PM EDT

WTI crude oil prices continue to trade under pressure into this afternoon. Crude oil prices ( USO , quote ) have not been this low since early July as market participants shy away from the growth commodity.

[caption id="attachment_74121" align="alignright" width="300" caption="De-Kastri terminal, Khabarovsk Territory (Russia's Far East)"] Image courtesy Rosneft: http://www.rosneft.com/news/photogallery/Downstream/Overview/7/ [/caption]

Price has remained under pressure for three straight sessions now, breaking the most recent support level at $87.85 as traders pushed price below $86.10, just below the Fibonacci 50% retracement level on the current wave.

Crude oil began the session under pressure because of a Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions this morning.

Moody's cited a weak economic outlook and uncertainty regarding Spain moving ahead with a potential European Central Bank (ECB) bailout.

Adding to the pressure, the Bank of Spain lowered its economic outlook for the country, stating that it now sees Spain's economy contracting by 0.4% for the third quarter.

Crude oil's price drop accelerated as U.S. markets opened sharply lower on continuing weak U.S. earnings.

As risk-off sentiment saturates the market, investors are seeking the safety of the U.S. dollar, sending it higher against the other major currencies and sending dollar-denominated commodities such as gold and crude oil lower.

Currently the U.S. dollar index is up by 0.31 to 80.045.

The next possible catalyst for crude oil is tomorrow. The U.S. Department of Energy will releases its Crude Oil Inventories report at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Analysts are forecasting a 2.0 million build compared to last week's 2.9 million build.

Bottom line : Although lower crude prices are good for business -- and eventually for us at the gas pump, they're a negative indicator for global growth. While lower prices will help business margins, they also imply lower demand from firms because of continuing anemic growth and global uncertainty. Crude oil could very well be sending us a message.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, International, Stocks

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