Comstock Wrecked by Nat Gas Prices - Analyst Blog

By Zacks.com May 01, 2012, 08:36:01 AM EDT

Domestic energy explorer Comstock Resources Inc. ( CRK ) reported weak first quarter results, hamstrung by depressed natural gas prices.

The predominantly natural gas-focused exploration and production firm reported adjusted loss per share of 30 cents in the quarter, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 17 cents. Comstock's performance also deteriorated considerably from the year-ago adjusted loss of 10 cents per share.

Total revenues were up 33.0% year over year to $117.1 million, aided by strong oil and gas sales but missed the Zacks Consensus estimate of $122.0 million.

Volume Analysis

Comstock recorded quarterly volume growth of 27.7% year over year to 25.5 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), of which 92% was natural gas. The improvement was driven by strong contributions from its East Texas/North Louisiana and South Texas operations.

Production in the East Texas/North Louisiana operating region increased 23.1% to 19.3 Bcfe (99% gas), while output from the South Texas properties came in at 5.1 Bcfe (52% gas), an approximately 47.9% increase from the year-earlier level.

Price Realizations

Average price realization per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), before hedging, was $4.39 in the quarter, down 0.7% year over year. Average oil price realization (before hedging) was $104.02 per barrel (versus $89.94 per barrel in first quarter 2011) and average natural gas realization was $2.63 per Mcf (compared with $3.96 per Mcf in the year-earlier quarter).

Comstock's high natural gas exposure raises its sensitivity to gas price fluctuations, compared to its more-diversified independent peers with a balanced oil/gas production profile. The company saw its results suffer on the back of a sharp drop in gas prices.

Costs & Expenses

Gathering and transportation costs, production taxes and lease operating costs came in at $7.9 million (up 40.2% year over year), $3.6 million (up 401.0%) and $14.7 million (up 27.7%) respectively, while total operating expenses increased 20.0% over the first quarter of 2011 to $115.6 million.

Cash Flow & EBITDAX

Comstock generated operating cash flow from continuing operations of $133.2 million, reflecting an increase of 161.5% from the year-earlier quarter. On the other hand, quarterly EBITDAX (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion, amortization, exploration expense and other non-cash expenses) was up 21.3% year over year to $133.2 million.

Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet

During the first quarter of 2012, Comstock spent $167.9 million on exploration/development drilling activities and $3.3 million on property acquisitions. As of March 31, 2012, Comstock had approximately $3.7 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1,207.0 million in long-term debt. Debt-to-capitalization at the end of the quarter was 54.0%.

Recommendation & Rating

Comstock's large acreage position in the prolific Haynesville Shale play (in East Texas and North Louisiana) - where industry heavyweights like Chesapeake Energy Corp. ( CHK ), Encana Corp. ( ECA ) and Royal Dutch Shell plc ( RDS.A ) are also leaseholders - provides a multi-year inventory of low-risk development drilling opportunities. Supplemented with a robust balance sheet, Comstock remains well positioned to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the near- to medium-term.

However, the company's highly gas-weighted reserves/production profile, along with exposure to the inherently cyclical and volatile exploration and production sector, offset these strengths and remains key areas of concern, in our view. We believe that Comstock's current valuation adequately reflects its fairly balanced risk/reward profile.

As such, we see the stock performing in line with the broader market and maintain our long-term Neutral recommendation, supported by a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating).


 
CHESAPEAKE ENGY ( CHK ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
COMSTOCK RESOUR ( CRK ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ENCANA CORP ( ECA ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ROYAL DTCH SH-A (RDS.A): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Business, Stocks

Referenced Stocks: CHK, CRK, ECA



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