Yes, hard for most people who have ONLY lived through the
markets with a strong commodity foundation to believe that
the Canadian Dollar was once trading at 1.60/USD
Hockey players sure remember, and they once were paid a
premium to play north of the border despite this being the
land of hockey royalty (in my view).
Today the Canadian Dollar is off another 50bps and has
weakened against the US Dollar almost "3 big figures" since the
start of the year.
Take a look at the breakdown in the CAD and weigh this against
long term charts and you can see where a continued breakdown in
commodity prices and demand may send the Canadian economy.
Recent jobs data and consumer confidence have been nothing short
of ugly. A Canadian housing bubble is another issue that
looms over the "Loonie".
Despite US Dollar weakness since Friday's disappointing NFP
release the USD is well positioned to move higher against major
crosses ex-Euro in the next 12 months on a combination of Fed
tapering, USD economic above trend growth and the travails of the
rest of the G8.
Playing a long USD/short CAD trade leaves you well positioned
to hedge against a long commodity view, or even a view that the
miners are oversold and can rally even if we do not return to
pre-crisis China stoked commodity demand. A way to trade
this using ETFs would simply be to short the FXC (
Watch for a test of 1.10 in the next few days but longer term
trend says 1.15 test will come before you see a test of 1.05.