Talking Points
- Crude Oil, Copper Follow Stocks Lower as Risk Appetite
Evaporates
- Gold and Silver Pressured as Haven Flows Bolster US Dollar
Anew
Commodity prices are trading broadly lower , extending a rout
that began in Asia amid worries about slowing Asian economic growth
and rebuilding Eurozone debt crisis fears. Sentiment-geared crude
oil and copper prices are following stocks lower while gold and
silver are facing de-facto selling pressure as haven flows pour
back into the US Dollar.
BOJ Governor Maasaki Shirakawa said monetary expansion alone
will not boost economic growth . Separately, PBOC adviser Song
Guoqing predicted Chinese economic growth would slow to 7.4 percent
in the third quarter, the weakest in nearly four years.
On the European front, German Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler
said he was "very skeptical" about Greece's rescue and warned the
country would not get further aid if it fails to meet its
obligations. He also noted that the Greece may accept the "wisdom"
of exiting the Eurozone if aid terms fail, adding that such a
possibility has "lost its terror". Reports claiming several Spanish
regions may follow Valencia in asking for a government bailout also
circulated.
S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply lower,
warning of continued risk aversion ahead. The Chicago Fed National
Activity Index amounts to the only bit of noteworthy event risk on
the economic calendar. Traders are likely to interpret the outcome
through the prism of QE3 probability, with a softer outcome
offering a possible counter-balance to anti-risk momentum by
stoking stimulus hopes.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $91.83 // -1.14 // -1.23%
Prices appear to have completed a bullish Head and Shoulders
(H&S) bottom chart pattern, implying a forthcoming advance to a
measured target of 101.38. Prices are pulling back to retest 90.14,
a familiar barrier reinforced by the H&S neckline (currently at
89.25) now recast as support. A daily close below the latter
boundary invalidates bullish implications of overall positioning
and initially exposes the July 3 closing high at 87.65. Near-term
resistance is at 93.35.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (NY Close): $158 4 . 50 // + 3 . 07 // +0. 19 %
Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 1588.90. A
break higher exposes falling trend line resistance now at 1607.48.
Near-term support lines up at 1571.94. A breach below that
initially targets 1559.55, followed by the 1522.50-32.45 area.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Silver (NY Close): $27. 31 // +0. 07 // +0.2 4 %
Prices continue to tread water above support is at 26.75. A
break below that exposes the multi-month triple bottom at 26.05.
Trend line resistance is now at 27.51, with a breach above that
exposing the July 3 high at 28.44.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close) : $3.448 // -0.086 // -2.43%
Prices are continuing lower after breaking through support at a
rising channel bottom set from late June to form a Bearish
Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers are now probing through the
23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 3.378, with a confirmed breach
exposing the 38.2% level at 3.268. Near-term resistance is at
3.445, the 14.6% Fib.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for
Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya , e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com . Follow Ilya on
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