Commodity prices appear vulnerable to risk aversion driven by
rising Eurozone sovereign stress. The Fed's Beige Book is in focus
on the economic calendar.
Talking Points
- Commodities Sold as Risk Aversion Grips Markets in Overnight
Trade
- Fed Beige Book, Costco Q3 Earnings Sought for Global Growth
Cues
- Risk-Off Mood Hinted as Spain CDS Points to Rising Sovereign
Fears
Commodities came under pressure overnight as broad-based risk
aversion plays out across financial markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific
regional benchmark equity index fell 0.8 percent. Newswires cited
guidance in the third-quarter earnings report from Alcoa Inc as the
catalyst for the dour mood. While the leading aluminum producer's
results beat analysts' estimates after adjusting for a handful of
special items, its forward guidance warned of the dangers posed by
a slowdown in China and carried a downgrade in the outlook for
demand.
Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to the Federal Reserve as the
central bank releases the Beige Book survey of regional economic
conditions. Traders continue look toward performance in the US
hoping a pickup in the recovery will help offset headwinds facing
global output from a recession in Europe and a slowdown in China.
The third-quarter earnings report from Costco Wholesale Corp may
likewise prove market-moving as traders look to the bulk retailer's
guidance for a reading on consumption trends. The API set of weekly
crude oil inventory figures is also on tap.
In the background, an EU Parliament panel and the EU Economic
and Monetary Affairs Committee are scheduled to hold parallel
debates on Eurozone crisis resolution as banking union proposals.
While concrete policy prescriptions are unlikely to emerge, traders
will keep an eye on any particularly telling sideline commentary.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is also due to meet with
French President Francois Hollande amid hopes Madrid will move
forward with requesting a full-on bailout. Such an announcement
seems unlikely today, but investors will keep an eye out for any
remarks that shape expectations of such an outcome.
S&P 500 stock index futures are in neutral territory,
offering little in terms of direction cues, but a pickup in Spanish
CDS spreads warns Eurozone sovereign jitters are on the rise. This
hints the risk-averse mood may carry forward into the opening bell
on Wall Street, an outcome that stands to weigh sentiment-sensitive
crude oil and copper prices. Meanwhile, gold and silver may see
de-facto selling pressure as haven demand bolsters the US Dollar.
Needless to say, a reversal toward a risk-positive posture stands
to produce the opposite outcome.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $92.39 // +3.06 // +3.43%
Prices are testing minor falling trend line resistance at 92.80
that has capped gains over recent weeks. A break higher targets the
94.00 figure, followed by the underside of a rising channel set
from early July (now at 97.49). Near-term support is at 87.70, the
38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a push below that targeting the 50%
level at 83.76.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (NY Close): $17 64 . 30 // - 10 . 65 // -0. 60 %
Prices continue to push lower after completing a bearish Dark
Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance in the
1790.55-1802.80 area, a setup reinforced by negative R S I
divergence. Sellers have now cleared the bottom of a Rising Wedge
chart pattern, exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1747.20
as the next downside objective. The Wedge bottom, now at 1772.09,
has been recast as near-term resistance. A push back above that
threatens 1790.55-1802.80 anew.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Want to learn more about RSI?
Watch this Video
Spot Silver (NY Close): $3 3 . 91 // -0. 07 // - 0 . 21 %
Prices followed the completion of a Bearish Engulfing
candlestick pattern with a drop to range support at 33.66, a
barrier reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 33.18. A
break below the latter boundary exposes the 38.2% Fib at 31.83.
Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside
scenario. Near-term resistance stands at the 35.00 figure, with a
break above that initially targeting the October 28 2011 high at
35.66.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Want to learn more about RSI?
Watch this Video
COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close) : $3.718 // 0.000 // 0.00%
Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at a falling
trend line set from early February (3.820). A break higher exposes
swing highs at 3.955 and 3.988. Near-term support lines up at
3.707, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A push below that targets
the 38.2% level at 3.627.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for
Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya , e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com . Follow Ilya on
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