Clean Diesel: CARB Diesel retrofit continues at below
Ian Gilson, CFA
On August 30, 2012
Clean Diesel (
issued a comment on a recent release by the Manufacturers of
Emission Controls Association, MECA, that the diesel particulate
filter (DPF) retrofit rate in California continued to be below that
required to meet the proscribed requirements. This continues the
trend of the first half of the year. In the first six months of
2012 the verified sales number was 3,030 out of an expected rate of
12,000 for 2012 and 66,000 filters for the period 2011 to 2015.
Without strong enforcement action, that is fines not citations, we
doubt that many truck operators will comply with the regulations
and the January 1, 2013 deadlines. Fleet operators, which make up a
large proportion of Clean Diesel's customer base, are moving
towards compliance but small independent operators are under
financial pressure in a weakening economy.
There is no certainty that the trucker will rush to buy DPF units
in the fourth quarter so we are reducing our estimates for 2012 and
2013. Positive factors are the off-road and stationary diesel
markets and the new contract with Honda for catalyst systems.
Our revenue estimates are $74 million, down from $75.2 million for
2012 and $90 million in 2013, down from $97 million. Our new EPS
estimates are -$0.76 in 2012 and $0.10 in 2013.
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