There's a sector in China that's booming right now, and U.S.
companies are just now starting to take advantage.
Consider a few statistics.
In 2000, a mere 4% of urban Chinese households were considered
middle class. By 2012, that figure had grown to 66%. If current
trends continue, by 2022 the middle class populationwill be 75%
of urban households. That's nearly 630 million consumers --
nearly twice the entire population of the United States.
The average annualincome of the urban Chinese middle class was
$760 per person in 2000. In cities like Bejing or Shanghai,
disposable income now averages nearly $12,000 per person. In
addition, these figures are probably underestimated, astax
avoidance runs rampant in China.
In another emerging trend, China has begun to implement a
financial assistance program for some of its residents. Due to
the lack of safety-net welfare programs likeSocial Security , the
Chinesesavings rate is around 50%. Compare this to the savings
rate for American households, which was 2.6% as of thisyear 's
So what does all thismean ?
China's industrial and manufacturingeconomy is giving way to a
consumption-driven economy. As the focus on the emerging Chinese
middle class heats up, retailers have begun pouring ininvestment
money to cater to the new levels of household demand.
Value Retail, a European discount outlet chain, is opening up
a mall just outside Shanghai to keep up with a growing Chinese
customer base, and American retailers are taking notice.
The Gap (
has expanded aggressively into China, opening 50 new stores since
establishing its presence there in 2011.
It appears that "keeping up with the Joneses" is becoming more
of a Chinese colloquialism than an American one these days.
Electronic goods such as computers and flat-panel TVs are selling
in record numbers, surpassing U.S.sales figures. For instance, as
of last year, 68% of Chinese urban middle-class households owned
at least one flat-panel TV.
The services sector is a particularly brightspot for China's
future. The burgeoning middle class is expected to spend more
heavily on leisure activities, education, and financial services.
By 2022, this sector is predicted to make up half of China's
overallGDP . Compared with their parents, the younger generation
has been raised with wealthier living standards and is adapting
to thenew paradigm . As major buyers of services, they are
expected to account for 35% of all consumer consumption by
So how can U.S. investors play the trend in China? Several
U.S. companies have begun to position themselves to take
Yum Brands (
has found success in adapting its business practices to China,
opening almost 5,000 KFCs and Pizza Huts. The recent poultry
scare helped cause a 20% miss in Yum'ssame-store sales ,
according to the company's second-quarterearnings report. But
Yumnotes that consumers are beginning to return to restaurants
and predicts a strong bounce-back year in 2014.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
has already enjoyed tremendous success in China, as seen in its
record iPhone 5 sales and booming iPad sales last year. The
company plans toopen 11 new stores in the next two years,
doubling its retail presence in China.
So far, no U.S. firms have been able togain a sizable foothold
in the services sector in China, but one company has shown
Bona Film Group (Nasdaq: BONA)
is the biggest private distributor of films in China, whose film
industry is now the second-largest in the world after the U.S.
With the prevailing winds of consumer spending behind it, Bona
Film Group could easily double in value.
Risks to Consider:
China's growth will depend on consumer spending -- and
consumer confidence. To that end, Chinese leaders must be
aggressive and diligent in creating a socialsupport system that
will instill confidence in the middle class to spend more and
save less. A failure to enact these measures may lead to further
slowing of GDP growth and a pullback in the Chinese markets.
Actions to Take -->
Watch the economic andmarket data coming out of China,
specifically regarding consumer spending and further government
stimulus. Reports of positive consumer confidence may be good
opportunities to start buying ahead of the trend.
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