China Hard Landing: When Will You Know? - Real Time Insight


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China Hard Landing: When Will You Know There's a lot of good economic discussion lately about the resurgence of the US economy. Few predicted we'd be this far along three years ago.

Things might be so good that there is even talk of the US economy "decoupling" from the Euro-mess and the China slow-down, and "muddling" right on through as Reity would say.

And even though I share the "no hard landing" beliefs of Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley chief strategist for Asia, I still think we need to watch carefully for signs that the Chinese may not be able to continue cooling their red-hot property market while also maintaining 8% growth.

Remember, Roach was a perma-bear on the US throughout the last decade and was vindicated in the 2008 credit crisis and market meltdown.

So my question is this: if he's not right about China, how and when will we know?

Do we rely on the official Chinese government statistics?

Do we listen to lots of other equity strategists and economists?

Do we watch closely the stocks of companies closely tied to the China/Emerging Markets boom, such as CAT, CMI, JOY, BHP, and FCX, and even the Australian dollar?

I am going with the last one. What say you?

BHP BILLITN LTD ( BHP ): Free Stock Analysis Report
CATERPILLAR INC ( CAT ): Free Stock Analysis Report
CUMMINS INC ( CMI ): Free Stock Analysis Report
FREEPT MC COP-B ( FCX ): Free Stock Analysis Report
JOY GLOBAL INC ( JOY ): Free Stock Analysis Report
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