Chesapeake Misses as Prices Fall - Analyst Blog

By Zacks.com May 02, 2012, 01:45:01 PM EDT

Natural gas provider, Chesapeake Energy Corp. ( CHK ) reported adjusted first quarter 2012 earnings of 18 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 29 cents. The reported figure also declined significantly from the year-earlier profit of 75 cents a share. The underperformance came on the heels of a nearly 56% decline in average price realizations for natural gas.

Total revenue increased 50% year over year to $2,419 million in the first quarter from $1,612 million in the comparable quarter last year. However, total revenue missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,752 million.

Operational Performance

Chesapeake's average daily production in the quarter increased nearly 18% year over year to 3,658 million cubic feet equivalent (MMcfe), of which natural gas accounted for 81%. The percentage of natural gas production to total volume decreased 6% points on an annualized basis. However, natural gas production grew marginally to 2,976 million cubic feet (Mcf) from 2,433 Mcf, while oil production expanded 69% from the year-ago level.

Natural gas equivalent realized price in the reported quarter was $4.02 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe) versus $5.99 in the year-earlier quarter. Average realizations for natural gas were $2.35 per Mcf compared with $5.31 per Mcf in the year-earlier quarter. Liquids were sold at $67.92 per barrel, up from the year-ago price level of $63.20 per barrel.

On the cost front, production expenses increased more than 23% from the year-earlier level to $1.05 per Mcfe.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Chesapeake had a cash balance of $438 million. Debt balance stood at $13,082 million, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 44.2% (versus 39.0% in the preceding quarter). Operating cash flow decreased 34.1% year over year to $910 million.

Guidance

Chesapeake expects its 2012 as well as 2013 total production approximately in the range of 1,286-1,318 Bcfe and 1,300-1,364 Bcfe, respectively.

For 2012 and 2013, the liquids production forecast range is 41-43 million barrels (MMBbls) and 55-59 MMBbls, respectively. Chesapeake expects its natural gas production in the bands of 1,040-1,060 Bcf and 970-1,010 Bcf for 2012 and 2013, respectively.

We believe that production growth will remain at or near the top of its large-cap peer group, particularly in light of continued strong drilling results from its shale plays.

Outlook

We appreciate Chesapeake's initiative of deploying more funds toward liquids. The company has grown rapidly and now ranks as the second-largest producer of natural gas. Since 2000, the company has created the largest combined inventories of onshore leasehold of about 15.6 million net acres in the U.S.

It also holds a leading position in 11 of the top 15 unconventional liquids-rich plays in the U.S. -- the Granite Wash, Cleveland, Tonkawa and Mississippi Lime plays in the Anadarko Basin; the Avalon, Bone Spring, Wolfcamp and Wolfberry plays in the Permian Basin; the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas; the Niobrara Shale in the Powder River Basin and the Utica Shale in the Appalachian Basin.

In our opinion, Chesapeake is one of the most active players in the industry to manage its asset portfolio through a combination of acquisitions and disposals. Recently, the company announced three divestiture agreements that will raise cash of $2.6 billion in total to cope with the mounting debt level as well as to fill the funding gap for its 2012 expenditures that resulted from the low natural gas prices.

Consequently, Chesapeake announced the curtailment of its drilling activity in dry natural gas plays from 50 operated rigs in the beginning of 2012 to an average of 38 rigs by the first quarter, which is likely to reduce further to 12 rigs in the latter half of 2012. This includes the two rigs which are most likely to be operational in the Barnett and Haynesville shale plays to cut its spending.

We think Chesapeake's focus on shale gas plays should provide the impetus to monetize its assets more effectively. This, coupled with the company's concentration on liquids will boost returns. However, since natural gas accounted for about 81% of Chesapeake's production in the quarter and as near-term speculations of challenging natural gas fundamentals remain, we are apprehensive that the company's results will be vulnerable to fluctuations in the relevant markets. Hence, we believe that the stock will perform in line with the group and maintain our long-term Neutral recommendation on Chesapeake.

The company retains a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating). Chesapeake's peer ConocoPhillips ( COP ) currently released its first quarter 2012 results. Even Conoco failed to meet the Consensus mainly due to lower production volume.


 
CHESAPEAKE ENGY (CHK): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Business, Stocks

Referenced Stocks: CHK, COP



Latest News Video



From Our Trusted News Source





Most Active by Volume:

Company Last Sale Change Net / %
BAC $ 13.31 0.13  0.97%
PFE $ 29.30 0.52  1.81%
GE $ 23.86 0.20  0.85%
F $ 14.97 0.02  0.13%
MSFT $ 34.61 0.24  0.69%
QQQ $ 73.65 0.62  0.83%
MU $ 10.92 0.31  2.76%
INTC $ 24.07 0.08  0.33%