Homeowners Choice (
was quietly one of last year's top performers. Now the stock has
pulled back to an important support level, providing another
entry to this great company.
As the chart below shows, Homeowners Choice has made quite the
climb. The shares increased from around $8 to as high as $26 in
2012. Based on that price appreciation, investors may have
believed this is a high-flying
growth stock like
This chart shows the price of
shares along with an important trend line level to
Though the shares have had a wild ride, the company is
actually fairly conservative. In fact, keeping risk low is their
business. That's because HCI is an insurance holding company,
providing property and casualty insurance in Florida.
Revenues leapt 40% to $94.8 million in 2011 from $68.6 million in
2010. Analysts expect sales to climb 58% in 2012. Moreover, the
EPS trend is just as bullish. HCI reported $1.34 EPS in 2011, and
analysts expect it to increase to $2.49 and $3.07 during the next
At a $21.25 stock price, the shares trade at only seven times
2013 EPS projections. For perspective, the average P/E ratio in
the industry is 21 while the average price to book is 1.7. HCI's
ratios are 9 and 2, respectively. So the low P/E ratio
compensates investors for the slightly higher book valuation.
Looking again at the chart, the stock is nearing a potentially
strong trend line. The 200-day moving average (black line) often
provides support to stocks in upward trends. Given the rise from
2011, there's no doubt this stock is in an upward trend. And I'd
expect the 200-day moving average to provide support.
The average price target is $28, which seems low. The shares
would have a P/E ratio of nine were the stock to rise to that
level during the next several months. Though I believe the stock
can go higher than $28, the short-term appeal is a buying
opportunity at the 200-day moving average.
Equities mentioned in this article: HCI, TRLA
Positions held in companies mentioned above: