Caterpillar Sticks to Pattern of Narrowing Earnings-Driven Pre-Bell Trade in Follow-On Regular Session, Favors Shorts

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Caterpillar ( CAT ) is due with its Q2 results in the pre-market session today. Analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $1.53 per share on revenue of $14.3 billion.

In looking back on CAT's performance between the sessions, we've found the issue favors narrowing its share move, with 19 reversal moves, 14 widening events, and two instances in which the stock held the same gain in both the pre-market and regular session.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has responded to quarterly earnings with a share gain 22 times, but longs take note, the stock has extended that move during regular trading only six times.


The stock has posted negative moves after earnings 13 times, expanding that move eight times.

On April 24, 2014, CAT gained 2.7% in pre-bell trade after beating Q1 estimates and boosting its guidance. It narrowed its gains in that day's regular session, ending up 1.8%.

On Jan. 27, 2014, CAT advanced 6.6% in night trade after topping Q4 expectations and approving a $10 billion share buyback. The stock cut its gains in that day's regular session, ending up 5.9%.

On Oct. 23, 2013, CAT declined 5.5% in pre-bell trade after missing Q3 estimates and setting weak guidance. The stock added to its losses in the regular session, ending down 6%.

On July 24, 2013, CAT dropped 1.4% in pre-market trade after missing Q2 expectations. The stock moved deeper in the red in the regular session, closing down 2.4%.

On April 22, 2013, CAT edged up 0.9% in pre-market trade despite missing Q1 estimates and cutting its outlook. The stock firmed higher in the regular session, closing up 2.8%.

On Jan. 28, 2013, CAT advanced 2.5% in pre-bell trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in Q4 profit and revenue and guidance in line with expectations. The early gain narrowed in that day's regular session, ending up 1.9%.

On Oct. 22, 2012, CAT declined 1.4% in pre-bell trade after posting a year-over-year increase in Q3 results and cutting its 2012 outlook. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, ending up 1.4%.

On July 25, 2012, CAT gained 4.6% in pre-bell trade after topping Q2 estimates and setting guidance above the Street view. The stock narrowed its upside in the regular session, ending up 1.4%.

On April 25, 2012, CAT declined 1.4% in pre-market trade after posting mixed Q1 results. The stock added to its downside in that day's regular session, closing off 4.5%.

On Jan. 26, 2012, CAT firmed 2.6% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The upside narrowed in that day's regular session, ending with a 2% advance.

On Oct. 24, 2011, CAT advanced 4.7% in pre-bell trade after blowing past Q3 expectations and boosting its outlook. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 5%.

On July 22, 2011, CAT declined 6.2% in pre-bell trade after missing Q2 earnings expectations. The stock narrowed its downside slightly in the follow-on regular session, ending down 5.7%.

On April 29, 2011, the stock gained 2.5% after beating with Q1 earnings and raising its outlook. Shares matched that move during regular trading that day.

On Jan. 27, 2011, CAT advanced 1.4% in pre-market trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. Traders cut the upside in that day's regular session, with the stock ending up a more modest 0.9%.

On Oct. 21, 2010, CAT advanced 0.4% in pre-bell trade on better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost its upside in that day's regular session, ending down 1.2%.

On July 22, 2010, the stock edged up 0.6% during pre-market trading after a Q2 beat and raised outlook. Shares rose a stronger 1.7% during regular trading.

In the April 26, 2010 pre-market session, the stock gained 3.5% after swinging to Q1 profit though reporting a decline in sales; guidance topped the Street view. Shares rose 4.1% during regular trading.

On Jan. 27, 2010, CAT declined 5.4% in pre-bell trade after missing sales expectations. The stock cut its downside in that day's regular session, ending off 4.3%.

On Oct. 20, 2009, CAT advanced 5.8% in pre-market trade after reporting better-than-expected results and raised guidance. The stock cut its advance in that day's regular session, ending up 3%.

On July 21, 2009, CAT charged 11% higher in pre-market trade after beating profit expectations and setting guidance mostly above Street estimates. The stock narrowed its gains in the follow-on regular session, ending the July 21 bell-to-bell session up 7.6%.

On April 21, 2009, CAT declined 5.3% in pre-bell action despite mostly better-than-expected results and mixed guidance. It reversed sharply in the follow-on regular session, ending up 3%.

On Jan. 26, 2009, CAT declined 6.1% in pre-market trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings. The stock dipped further into the red in that day's regular session, dropping 8.3% by the closing bell.

On Oct. 21, 2008, CAT declined 1.4% in pre-market trade after missing earnings expectations. It headed further south in that day's regular session, declining 5% by the closing bell.

On July 22, 2008, CAT gained 2.4% in pre-bell action after beating expectations and raising guidance. It closed the regular session with the same 2.4% advance.

On April 18, 2008, CAT advanced 3.5% in pre-market trade after beating quarterly expectations. It continued heading higher into that day's regular session, rising 8.5% by the close.

On Jan. 25, 2008, CAT advanced 3.4% in pre-market trade after meeting with Q4 EPS and beating on sales. Much of its upside evaporated in that day's regular session, with the stock closing with a modest 1% gain.

On Oct. 19, 2007, CAT declined 3.8% in pre-market trade after missing earnings expectations and narrowing its profit guidance. The stock headed lower in the following regular session, closing the day down 5.2%.

In July 20, 2007's pre-market, CAT dropped 8.2% after missing Q2 EPS estimates but topping on sales. Shares cut their losses during the subsequent day session, ending down 4.3%.

On April 20, 2007, the stock gained 4.9% in the pre-market after reporting ahead with Q1 and guiding higher for the fiscal year. The gain was pared just slightly and the issue finished up 4.6% later that day.

On Jan. 26, 2007, CAT advanced 2.8% in pre-market trade after the company reported a year-over-year improvement in Q4 results and issued guidance mostly in-line with expectations. The stock slipped a bit, but held the bulk of its gains in the regular session, ending the day up 2.4%

On Oct. 20, 2006, CAT was crushed 10% in pre-market trade after the company issued strong year-over-year growth in Q3 results but also trimmed its forward sales growth view. More aggressive selling hit CAT in that day's regular session, sending the issue down 14.5% by the close.

On July 21, 2006, CAT gained 3% in pre-market trade after the company topped Q2 estimates and raised its guidance. It saw that gain evaporate in the regular session, with the stock ending the day down 1%.

On April 24, 2006, CAT gained 0.4% in pre-market action after the company beat estimates and lifted its full year guidance. The modest upside slipped away between the bells, and CAT ended the regular session down 0.6%.

On Jan. 26, 2006, CAT gained 2.1% in pre-bell trade after the company beat expectations and set its outlook above the then-current Street view. CAT firmed even higher in the regular session, advancing 5% by the close.

Back on Oct. 21, 2005, CAT shed 8.3% in pre-market activity after reporting disappointing earnings results. Sellers tacked on a bit more downside in that day's regular session, pressuring CAT 9.4% lower for the day.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: CAT

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