) reported first quarter 2012 adjusted earnings of 2 cents per
share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 2 cents per
share, but deteriorated from the year-ago quarter earnings of 19
cents. On a GAAP basis the company reported a loss of 18 cents per
share, due to the charges of $173 million related to Ibero Cruises'
goodwill and trademark impairments and net unrealized gains on fuel
derivatives of $21 million.
Carnival's first quarter total revenue increased 4.8% from the
prior-year quarter to $3,582 million.
On a constant currency basis, net revenue yields rose 2.9% in
the first quarter from the prior-year quarter. Gross revenue yields
rose 1.0% at current dollars. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per
available lower berth day (ALBD), jumped 6.4% year over year on a
constant dollar basis. Fuel price of $707 per metric ton was up
30.0% year over year.
Revenue increased to $2,764.0 million from $2,652.0 million in the
first quarter of 2012.
Onboard and Other:
Revenue increased to $809.0 million from $757.0 million in the
Tour and Other:
Revenue from the segment declined to $9.0 million from $10.0
million in the year-ago quarter.
Second Quarter 2012 Guidance
Management expects net revenue yield on a constant dollar basis
excluding the disaster of the ship Costa Concordia, to be flat to
down slightly and decrease 2.5% to 3.5% including Costa. Net cruise
costs per ALBD, excluding fuel are expected to be flat to down 1%
on constant dollar basis.
Fuel costs for the second quarter are expected to increase $85
million year over year, costing an additional 11 cents per
share. Based on current fuel prices and currency exchange
rates, the company expects adjusted diluted earnings in the range
of 5 cents to 9 cents per share.
During the second quarter, the company will take delivery of all
three of its new ships for 2012, Costa Fascinosa, AIDAmar and
Full Year 2012 Guidance
Carnival expects net revenue yield on a constant dollar basis
excluding Costa to be in line with the year ago quarter, but
including Costa, the company views a plunge of 2% to 4% in net
Net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel, are projected to be
down 0.5% to up 0.5% on a constant dollar basis. Net cruise costs
per ALBD, excluding fuel, are projected to be down 0.5% to 1.5% on
a current dollar basis.
Fuel expenses are estimated at $766.0 per metric ton. Carnival
has trimmed its non-GAAP earnings range to $1.40 to $1.70 per
share, from its previous outlook of $2.55 to $2.85. The company has
cut down its earnings mainly due to the sinking of the Costa
Concordia off of Italy in January.
We believe the Costa disaster is historical and will hit the
industry as a whole in the near term. As a result the company is
also experiencing slowdown in booking volumes, but we think that in
due course of time booking volumes will gradually improve.
Additionally, the business of the company's North American brands
is less hurt than European brands.
Moreover, we believe that a strong balance sheet and solid cash
generation capacity should bode well for Carnival. Capacity growth
for Carnival will likely decelerate in 2012 as opposed to 2011 and
2010. The company has also implemented a fuel derivative program to
mitigate significant increases in fuel prices.
Carnival, which competes with
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
), currently retains a Zacks #5 Rank (short-term Strong Sell
rating). We also reiterate our long-term Neutral
CARNIVAL CORP (
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