The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing
intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any
prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their
direction tends to correlate with any
listed for each.
Did extreme volatility in reaction to FOMC and Ben Bernanke shake
loose some patterns or complete their trending? Wednesday night's
extremes might be retested soon, but exceeding them might take
quite some time.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to
efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid
stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live
intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at
Jun Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Wednesday's night's plunge to 82.60 nevertheless recovered to range
around 83.33 Thursday. Extending down without a corrective bounce
first would be difficult.
Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
An overnight surge to 1.3210 was pushed back down to consolidate
Thursday at 1.3020 support. Recovering 1.3020 would have signaled
the decline had ended, but retracing the excessive overnight rally
back down to 1.3020 makes that unclear. A rally effort Friday would
Aug Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Now we know why, despite Wednesday repeatedly failing to extend any
one of its probes above Tuesday's highs, negative territory was
never probed. Optimism remained very much alive and well, reacting
up sharply overnight on Bernanke. The fourth consecutive session of
ranging flat-to-lower from a gap up still undermines the gap's
cumulative gains. Back under 1271.50 and 1268.00 would signal
momentum reversing back down.
Sep Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The reaction to Bernanke only retested last week's test of the
20.00 area Thursday. But if not rejected through Friday's close,
there is room for fresh highs up to 20.88.
Sep Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's gap up above Tuesday's highs ranged around 134-04
intraday, absorbing the afternoon's 30-year auction. Absent a
second consecutive higher confirming close Friday, the gap left
outstanding back down to Wednesday's 132-28 close will need to be
filled, probably on the way down to fresh lows.
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Probing higher overnight to 107.45 didn't change the likelihood for
testing the 106.35 target to produce a pullback targeting 103.30
"lower prior highs," which has so far been retraced down to 104.31.
Aug Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:UNG, UNL)
EIA prevented a recovery attempt back above 3.70 that was instead
reversed back down to 3.55-3.60 support. Closing back above 3.73
would still trigger a rally leg.