) is set to report first-quarter 2015 results on May 15. Last
quarter, the company posted a 33.33% positive surprise. The company
has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 12.40% over the
past four quarters. Year-to-date, Autodesk's share price has
decreased 1.9% compared with an increase of 3.6% for the S&P
Let's see how things are shaping up for this quarter:
Growth Factors This Past Quarter
Autodesk's results are expected to benefit from the growth
opportunities in the AEC and manufacturing markets. Strong momentum
from the BIM product portfolio will help it to faster penetrate the
$7.0 trillion construction market.
The company continues to win/expand deal in the domestic as well as
international markets. European Union's directive to its 28 member
states recommending the use of BIM on public works projects is a
major positive for Autodesk.
We believe that Autodesk's new cloud-based offerings are gaining
traction. Moreover, the company's focus on expanding its mobile
applications for both
) iOS and
) Android platform will boost its footprint in the consumer market.
However, sluggish macro-economic environment, weakness in emerging
markets, customer concentration and increasing competition from
) are the major concerns. Moreover, continued investments in new
products are expected to hurt margins in the near term.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2014, Autodesk expects revenues in
the range of $560.0-$575.0 million. Earnings (excluding stock-based
compensation expense, amortization of intangibles and restructuring
charges) are expected in the range of 19 to 22 cents for the
to-be-reported quarter. This is higher than the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of 11 cents.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Autodesk is likely
to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to
have both a positive
and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is
not the case here, as you will see below.
: Earnings ESP for Autodesk stands at 0.00%. This is because both
the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are
pegged at 11 cents.
: Autodesk has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) which when combined with
0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated
stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the
company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
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