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Here's a small sampling of the
120+ posts seen on the Buzz &
Banter this week:
Monday, June 30, 2014
NDX At a Key Level
As noted a week ago
[subscription required], the
( (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) has upside risk to the bear market retraces of
76.4% at 3867 and 78.6% at 3955.
Well, here we are at the first target with NDX at 3858 after an
incredible breakout run from 50% resistance (2805) in early 2013.
(NDX futures) has an obvious target of 3852.50, the weekly R1. The
risk above that remains 3955, but I would not be surprised to see a
summer high right around the corner.
Bonds have been holding a steady bid, and the yield on the 10-year
could come down and test 2.457% in the near future.
Click to enlarge
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
Twitter Up For Sale Based on CFO Appointment?
There is some chatter that
) hirie of Anthony Noto as CFO could be part of a dress-up for a
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Yields in Front of Tomorrow's Number
This seems like an illogical assumption.
Noto took Twitter public as a banker with Goldman Sachs, which
seems to be the rationale of the rumor-mongers. Noto resigned from
Goldman in May to take a job with the hedge fund Coatue, though he
stepped away from that opportunity to join Twitter.
In the remote chance Twitter wants to sell itself, there's no
reason it would specifically need Noto to execute a successful
deal. They'd have pick of any investment banker in the world to get
it done. Heck, they could bring Noto on as a consultant on a deal
without appointing him CFO with a potential 9-figure compensation
Additionally, Twitter has had a number of executive changes in
recent months, including the departure of COO Ali Rowghani.
Noto is most likely just valuable new blood brought in to handle
Wall Street and business development.
And he wasn't just a banker -- he was once CFO of the NFL, so this
position isn't exactly out of his wheelhouse.
ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr ETF
(NYSEARCA:TBT) tracing out a potential bullish "second mouse gets
the cheese" move above its 50 dma after the failed attempt on June
See a daily TBT chart from May with its 50 dma:
Click to enlarge
Thursday, July 3, 2014
NFP and ECB
It's been a busy hour with the release of the June nonfarm payrolls
report and the ECB rate decision.
Here is what I've gathered thus far:
- The ECB is moving to a 6-week cycle (from 4 weeks) for rate
decisions, effective January 2015
- Full details for the TLTRO program will be released after the
conclusion of Draghi's press conference
- Work has continued on the ABS program, which is being used to
repair the lending channel. The ECB wants higher transparency on
these bonds at the loan level before they start buying
- The number of long-term unemployed dropped by 293,000 to 3.1
million in June, which is 32.8% of the total unemployed. That's a
drop of 1.2 million over the past year. Some of the drop this
year may be due to the rolling off of long-term unemployment
- Part-time jobs rose by 799,000 according to the household
data set, most likely due to summer jobs starting
- There was a slightly higher level of jobs created in retail
trade than normal, and local government jobs increased
- Increases in nominal wage gains are still tracking at 2%-2.4%
year-over-year. It was 2% this month, but should stay in that
- The person who bought $100 billion+ in notional exposure to
Eurodollar future steepeners yesterday is very happy this
morning. Dec 2015 Euro (EDZ5) is +6.5bps today and Z6 is 2.5bps
steeper. Accordingly, the front end of the Treasury curve is
Friday, July 4, 2014
Market closed for July 4 holiday.
- The 30-year yield is still balking at going back through its
pivot at 3.5%, which is very telling. If we lose that pivot, then
the inflation camp takes over. I would take the other side of