All day and every day, some of the stock market's best and
brightest traders and money managers share their ideas, insights,
and analysis in real time on Minyanville's
Buzz & Banter
Here is a small sampling of the 120+ posts seen on the Buzz &
Banter this week:
Morning Minyans! I wanted to let those following my
) trade from last week know that I took profit on my calls this
morning when the stock was trading around $139, almost $20 higher
from where we pointed out
the potential for a rally last Wednesday
. I still think Tesla could run up to $145, but I'm not going to
pick up pennies in front of this steamroller. Now that my eW4
target zone has been acquired, I'll be looking for short entries
targeting $100 by the end of the year. I'll update you all
accordingly after the adrenalin wears off.
Good luck out there!
Weight Watchers Wedgie!
I'm still watching
) to see if it progresses as it should. So far, so good: Double
bottom (check), establishing a range (check). It just continues to
see accumulation down here and looks to set up for a pop toward the
50-day. I have also noticed that we are getting a nice and tight
wedge down here. This is setting us up for a nice risk versus
reward play as we can use the lower line as your sell stop and
could even use a tier system. For example: Take a half position
while in the wedge. If it breaks above the upper line, add the
other half and play the momentum. When the momentum starts to wane,
sell the second half and use a trailing stop on the first half.
This type of method allows you to do the following:
1. Get engaged without full risk
2. Push into full risk when the odds are in your favor
3. Then take some off for a profit
4. Continue to ride if it goes higher
I like this type of strategy particularly because of how it allows
you to manage emotions. If the trade goes against you, you can say
"at least I didn't have a full position." If the trade goes for
you, you are booking gains along the way, and you don't have the
"Why am I not in it!" moment.
I just wanted to share a little more of some of my trading
strategies. I hope it helps!
Click to enlarge
Michael A. Gayed
Sentiment data continues to get more extreme and is the biggest
impediment to further gains in U.S. equities. The Investors
Intelligence sentiment poll released this morning showed the fewest
number of Bears (14.3%) since March of 1987 and the highest number
of Bulls (57.1%) since April of 2011. The spread between Bulls and
Bears of 42.8% is now firmly in the danger zone. While this doesn't
guarantee a crash, it does suggest caution is warranted. As the
table below indicates, the average 52-week return following a
Bull-Bear spread of over 40% has been only 1.6% versus an 8.3%
return in all time periods. Heading into 2014, then, what needs to
be tapered are expectations.
Click to enlarge
GDX Big Bullish Backtest?
Yesterday, we sent a daily
Market Vectors Gold Miners
(NYSEARCA:GDX) chart showing a possible big bullish backtest. See
A stab up though 22 with authority, especially on the
importantFriday weekly closing basis, suggests that notion is
A 10-min GDX fromWednesday through this morning shows that GDX
tested Wednesday's lows in pre-open action and is turning up.
Below, see a GDX chart.
If you're waiting for the logic of a potential stronger economy and
higher rates to justify higher gold don't bother. Gold has been
down for 2 years in the face of a fiat orgy.
All markets have their own internal clock. And at the end of the
day, the wheels within wheels inside that clock are cyclical, not
To wit, this week is straight across and opposite 1921, the record
high on gold.
Click to enlarge
Taking Down GSV Capital
I just took down a slug of
), a publicy-traded technology investment fund. I'll give a hat tip
TechStrat author Sean Udall
who's been discussing the huge discount to NAV.
GSV is trading at about $10.36, which is a 22% to its last reported
NAV of $13.26. However, that was as of September 30. Since then,
), which accounted for 17.6% of assets then, came public and added
at least $2+ per share in NAV, which more than offsets the
disappointing performance of holdings
Additionally, as Sean pointed out recently, GSV has big stakes in
two pre-IPO properties: Dropbox, which is going to be an absolute
monster deal, and Palantir Technologies, which just raised money at
a huge valuation.
So while GSV is uber-risky considering that it is heavily
concentrated in Twitter and
(FB), and holds so many relatively illiquid stakes in private
companies, the risk-reward looks pretty good here.
I'd also point out that GSV has taken a huge nosedive while tech
stocks, including social media names, have been doing just fine.
Check out the chart below, which shows a comparison between GSV and
social media ETF
(SOCL). Either the IPO market's about to die or GSV's got some
catching up to do. I'm speculating on the latter.
Click to enlarge