When you look at the broader stock market, the little guys often
get lost in the shuffle. That's because a small start-up or a penny
stock can see massive income based on small innovations or an
exponential increase in market share due to even minor demographic
shifts or industry trends. The reality is that entrenched blue
chips just don't move as fast. That can be a good thing in troubled
times because it reduces risk, but it can also frustrate investors
who watch speedy little companies lap them several times over.
Personally, I see the benefit in both asset classes. I just
released my list of my favorite
blue chip stocks to buy
, and just days ago offered up a new list of
11 penny stocks to buy now
. That's because you can find great stocks of all sizes if you know
what to look for.
However, if you're looking to learn something about the broader
market it's helpful to pay more attention to the blue chips. In
fact, the bigger they are the better example they often can be of
macro trends. That's why I want to take a moment today to discuss
what I see across 38 "mega cap" stocks with a market size of more
than $100 billion at current valuations:
Mega Cap Blue Chip Stocks to Buy
First, let's look at the good companies. My fundamental analysis
of earnings, sales and other key metrics indicates that out of the
38 mega cap blue chips out there, a mere six are worth buying right
now. Not a good sign, but after a brutal May it shouldn't come as
much of a surprise.
It is important to note, however, the sectors in which these top
mega cap stocks are located - namely technology and computer
staples.
Apple Inc.
(
AAPL
) is forging ahead with red-hot sales of its iPad and iPhone
gadgets, lifting the entire tech sector as a result. After a
blowout first-quarter earnings report that topped estimates by over
35%, nobody doubts the strength of AAPL stock.
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Intel
(
INTC
) is also flying high on the demand for its processors due to sales
of iPads and other high-tech gear, seeing profits soar over the
last four quarters from a loss of -7 cents a share in Q2 of 2009 to
profits of 43 cents a share in its Q1 report just several weeks
ago. Forecasts for Intel's next earnings report in mid-July are set
at 43 cents, which will present a massive year-over-year
improvement if that estimate holds.
Hewlett-Packard
(
HPQ
) is seeing similar success with its computers and gadgets. It has
met or exceeded Wall Street estimates in each of the last four
quarters and is projecting growth of 15% to 20% this year.
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It's safe to say that when you look at the mega caps, you can
find lots of reasons to be bullish on the tech sector.
Another sector worth a look is consumer staples. Beverage giant
PepsiCo
(
PEP
) and household products maker
Procter & Gamble
(
PG
) are at the top of the list thanks to improving global sales and a
steady revenues. While consumers are slowly warming up to purchases
like new cars and new homes, consumer staples sales have been
strong over the last year or so and should continue to be firm
going forward.
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As a bit of an outlier in the top mega caps to buy,
Merck
(
MRK
) also makes the top of my list. I give "hold" ratings to mega cap
pharma competitors like
Johnson & Johnson
(
JNJ
), and even a "sell" rating to rival
Pfizer
(
PFE
). Merck stands along due to four straight quarters of earnings
that have met or exceeded EPS forecasts and continued fundamental
strength, but don't confuse this company's individual strength with
an endorsement for the whole sector.
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Here's a look at the list of mega cap blue chips to buy:
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Sector
|
Market Cap (
B
)
|
PortfolioGrader Grade
|
|
AAPL
|
Apple Inc.
|
Computers & Peripherals
|
$233.7
|
A - Strong Buy
|
|
HPQ
|
Hewlett-Packard Co.
|
Computers & Peripherals
|
$108.1
|
B - Buy
|
|
INTC
|
Intel Corp.
|
Semiconductors
|
$118.6
|
B - Buy
|
|
MRK
|
Merck & Co Inc
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
$105.0
|
B - Buy
|
|
PEP
|
PepsiCo Inc.
|
Beverages
|
$102.3
|
B - Buy
|
|
PG
|
Procter & Gamble Co.
|
Household Products
|
$175.9
|
B - Buy
|
Full disclosure: In my
Blue Chip Growth
investment newsletter, I am recommending Apple to my subscribers as
of this writing. I am also recommending Intel currently in my
Quantum Growth
investment newsletter.
Mega Cap Blue Chip Stocks to Sell
Considerably longer is the list of mega cap stocks that I would
recommend selling right now. Despite being fairly conservative
investments even on their worst days, there's not reason to hang on
to a bad stock even if it has a market ca of $100 billion. I'd
recommend trading out any of these stocks immediately for a better
company, even if that means going smaller.
I won't bore you with details from every since stock on this
list of blue chips to sell, but let me at least cover the big
trends:
First, it should be clear that oil and energy stocks are the
worst off. We can thank
BP plc
(
BP
) for that.
Exxon Mobil
(
XOM
),
Total
(
TOT
),
Chevron
(
CVX
) and several others have been weighed down thanks to continued
mayhem in the Gulf of Mexico and fears that Congress will get
vindictive with regulations in the wake of this crisis. I would
steer clear of any crude oil stock for now.
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GS
)?
Thanks to a crisis of a different kind - namely sovereign debt
problems in Europe and continued fallout from mortgage trouble in
the U.S. - banks are another sector worth avoiding. That goes for
Citigroup
(
C
),
Wells Fargo
(
WFC
) and
JP Morgan Chase
(
JPM
) among the mega caps.
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Peppered in there are a few other outlier stocks as well, such
as automaker
Toyota
(
TM
) that continues to suffer in the wake of a recall earlier this
year and struggling telecom provider
AT&T
(
T
) may be facing a mass migration when its exclusive partnership
with Apple and the iPhone comes to an end.
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Here's the complete list of mega cap stocks to sell:
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Sector
|
Market Cap (
B
)
|
PortfolioGrader Grade
|
|
T
|
AT&T Inc.
|
Diversified Telecommunications
|
$143.6
|
D - Sell
|
|
BHP
|
BHP Billiton Ltd.
|
Metals & Mining
|
$180.4
|
D - Sell
|
|
BBL
|
BHP Billiton PLC
|
Metals & Mining
|
$152.7
|
D - Sell
|
|
BP
|
BP PLC
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$134.5
|
D - Sell
|
|
CVX
|
Chevron Corp.
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$148.4
|
D - Sell
|
|
CHL
|
China Mobile Ltd.
|
Wireless Telecommunications
|
$186.8
|
D - Sell
|
|
C - Hold
|
Citigroup Inc.
|
Diversified Financial Services
|
$113.3
|
D - Sell
|
|
XOM
|
Exxon Mobil Corp.
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$284.0
|
D - Sell
|
|
HBC
|
HSBC Holdings
|
Commercial Banks
|
$156.3
|
D - Sell
|
|
JPM
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
|
Diversified Financial Services
|
$157.3
|
D - Sell
|
|
PFE
|
Pfizer Inc.
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
$122.8
|
D - Sell
|
|
PTR
|
PetroChina Co. Ltd.
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$196.4
|
F - Strong Sell
|
|
PBR
|
Petrobras Petroleo Brasileiro
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$156.3
|
F - Strong Sell
|
|
RDS.A
|
Royal Dutch Shell PLC
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$161.3
|
D - Sell
|
|
TOT
|
Total S.A.
|
Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels
|
$104.2
|
F - Strong Sell
|
|
TM
|
Toyota Motor Corp.
|
Automobiles
|
$113.4
|
D - Sell
|
|
WFC
|
Wells Fargo & Co.
|
Commercial Banks
|
$149.4
|
D - Sell
|
Mega Cap Blue Chip Stocks to Hold
Of course there are a host of other companies in between these
two groups. As you'll see they are a grab bag across a number of
sectors - including some industries that on the whole seem to be
doing very well or doing very poorly.
I'm including these mega cap stocks to hold as an example of how
Wall Street is never black and white. There are always a few stocks
that buck the trends, and at the end of the day its up to investors
to do their homework and make sure the individual stocks they buy
are succeeding on the strength of their own numbers - not a fad or
investment trend.
Here are the list of mega cap stocks to hold.
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Sector
|
Market Cap (
B
)
|
PortfolioGrader Grade
|
|
BAC
|
Bank of America Corp.
|
Diversified Financial Services
|
$157.9
|
C - Hold
|
|
BRK.B
|
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
|
Capital Markets
|
$174.3
|
C - Hold
|
|
LFC
|
China Life Insurance
|
Insurance
|
$123.3
|
C - Hold
|
|
CSCO
|
Cisco Systems Inc.
|
Communications Equipment
|
$132.8
|
C - Hold
|
|
KO
|
Coca-Cola Co.
|
Beverages
|
$118.5
|
C - Hold
|
|
GE
|
General Electric Co.
|
Industrial Conglomerates
|
$174.6
|
C - Hold
|
|
GOOG
|
Google Inc. (Cl A)
|
Internet Software & Services
|
$154.6
|
C - Hold
|
|
IBM
|
International Business Machines
|
IT Services
|
$160.6
|
C - Hold
|
|
JNJ
|
Johnson & Johnson
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
$160.8
|
C - Hold
|
|
MSFT
|
Microsoft Corp.
|
Software
|
$226.1
|
C - Hold
|
|
NVS
|
Novartis AG
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
$103.0
|
C - Hold
|
|
ORCL
|
Oracle Corp.
|
Software
|
$113.2
|
C - Hold
|
|
VALE
|
Vale S.A.
|
Metals & Mining
|
$141.7
|
C - Hold
|
|
VOD
|
Vodafone Group PLC
|
Wireless Telecommunications
|
$105.5
|
C - Hold
|
|
WMT
|
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
|
Food & Staples Retailing
|
$191.4
|
C - Hold
|
Full Disclosure: In my
Blue Chip Growth
investment newsletter, I am recommending Novartis to my subscribers
as of this writing.
About Portfolio Grader: Every Sunday, renowned growth stock
expert Louis Navellier runs a fundamental analysis on the top
5,000 Wall Street companies. Armed with this research, Navellier
offers a rating for each company reflected as a simple letter
grade, with A being "strong buy" and F being "strong sell."
Portfolio Grader's stock data is free and open to the
public and can be accessed online here
.
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