The future of the euro looked less bright since May 6, when
Greek political parties opposing the terms and conditions of the
second bailout were voted into office.
Because, despite public support, Greek parties failed to form a
government and the next elections are being held on June 17.
Unsurprisingly, the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEArca:GREK) has
been a staple recently on our "Best/Worst Daily ETF Returns."
GREK is, in my view, just the tip of an iceberg, and it's really
time for investors to get focused on how to control potential
damage.
I realize some argue that Greece's departure from the eurozone
may strengthen the remaining nations in the European Union, and
that may be true.
But it could also do the opposite. It may weaken the idea of the
euro and serve as a precedent for others to exit.
After all, Greece is just one of the letters in the
by-now-familiar "PIGS" acronym - the others being Portugal, Italy
and Spain.
I mindfully changed the term to 'PIGS' from the original
"PIIGS"-the second "I" representing Ireland, which in many ways has
passed through the worst of its banking crisis, as my colleague Ugo
Egbunike wrote in a story last week on the fate of the euro in this
whole mess.
Wanted:Eurozone Exit Plan
Officials have tried hard to fix the European debt crisis, since
a failure to do so may wreak havoc on financial markets
worldwide.
But another key aspect in influencing their procrastination is
the fact that an "exit plan" was not built into the policy. Joining
the EU was meant to be a one-way road. So now, even if European
leaders decide that a "Grexit" is inevitable, there's no policy in
place for the country to do so.
It doesn't matter anymore that the eurozone's architects failed
to meaningfully consider the possibility of today's mess in
southern Europe.
All that matters now is that today's leaders come up with a
plan. And if that plan involves Greece's exit, then it could set a
precedent for others.
Italy and Spain, both dubbed as the "next Greece," have much
larger economies than Greece, and their exit would affect the
eurozone and the global economy to a much greater extent.
How long will it be until financial markets and European
officials turn their attention to other nations that have high
government deficits and low economic growth?
I don't have a crystal ball, but data does show that Greece is
not the only piggy playing in the mud.
From the chart below, you can see that Portugal, Italy, and
Spain are much weaker than Europe and the eurozone as a whole. This
shouldn't be surprising, since both are supported by governments
with much healthier balance sheets, such as Germany.
Global X FTSE Greece 20 (NYSEArca:GREK)
iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund (NYSEArca:EWP)
iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund (NYSEArca:EWI)
Admittedly, GREK, which launched fairly recently, has a shallow
fund asset base-$2.5 million. However, EWP and EWI show much
stronger investor interest, with assets of $140 million and $127
million, respectively.
If things head south, investors in risky country-specific ETFs
may suffer greater losses than those market players that diversify
across all of Europe.
And in case things get a whole lot worse before they get better,
even those not invested in country-specific ETFs should hedge their
positions.
Besides shorting securities, investors can also utilize inverse
currency ETFs and ETNs.
Two possible choices include the ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF
(NYSEArca:EUO) and the Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN
(NYSEArca:DRR), which have both done well for those holding them in
recent months.
EUO returned 18.72 percent, while DRR returned 19.79 percent,
whereas EWP and EWI lost 37.56 percent and 38.73 percent,
respectively.
A broader Europe ETF, such as the Vanguard European
(NYSEArca:VGK), served investors slightly better, but still wound
up in the red at -18.63 percent.
Don't forget to check IndexUniverse.com's ETF Data
section.
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