Short-sellers abandoned their bets against gold last month in
droves as the prospect of a third round of quantitative easing from
the Federal Reserve shifted from a remote possibility to something
that seemed increasingly tangible.
The number of shares short in SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca:GLD),
the world's biggest physical bullion ETF, fell 31.2 percent-a
complete reversal from July, when short interest in GLD spiked by
55 percent amid incipient sentiment that the decade-long gold rally
might be growing long in the tooth.
But Fed officials, increasingly concerned that a faltering jobs
market could spell even deeper trouble for the world's biggest
economy, changed all that with increasingly pointed comments last
month about how so-called QE3 was looking more possible than ever.
That talk turned real last Thursday with the launch of a new
stimulus program.
Other data points we collect at IndexUniverse also brought home
the point that gold was coming back into favor as the central bank
contemplated more stimulus. For one, GLD was the single most
popular ETF in August, hauling in almost $2 billion in fresh assets
as investors began positioning themselves for the possibility of
QE3, as we wrote at the end of last month.
Moreover, from a price perspective, all those short-sellers
covering their positions looked quite sensible in the rearview
mirror. GLD jumped almost 6 percent in August, ending the month at
$164.22 a share. The ETF has jumped another 3.8 percent since the
end of last month.
Indeed, the launch of QE3 last Thursday-an open-ended commitment
for the Fed to purchase as much as $40 billion worth of
mortgage-backed securities a month-has stoked prices of commodities
priced in dollars such as gold and, more broadly, encouraged the
return of "risk-on"-type trading that favors asset classes such as
emerging market equities.
To that end, the nearly 17 percent drop in the number of shares
short of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund
(NYSEArca:EEM) was another clear sign that investors were preparing
for QE3 last month.
As was the case regarding inflows into GLD, an analogous pattern
of creations activity could be seen in last month's IndexUniverse
ETF flows report, only EEM's rival fund, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging
Markets ETF (NYSEArca:VWO) was the most conspicuous beneficiary of
renewed 'risk-on' behavior.
VWO pulled in $824.3 million in fresh assets in August, making
it the second-most-popular U.S.-listed ETF after GLD.
| Big Bets |
| Ticker |
Name |
% Float Short |
1 Month % Change |
$Short ($, M) |
| SPY |
SPDR S&P 500 |
28.10 |
4.56 |
29,766.91 |
| IWM |
iShares Russell 2000 |
86.89 |
-11.87 |
13,163.25 |
| QQQ |
PowerShares QQQ |
10.38 |
-2.95 |
3,638.20 |
| XLE |
Energy Select SPDR |
35.21 |
-5.70 |
2,644.07 |
| GLD |
SPDR Gold |
3.50 |
-31.17 |
2,458.46 |
| IYR |
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate |
46.29 |
17.60 |
1,833.63 |
| XLF |
Financial Select SPDR |
23.92 |
-8.88 |
1,635.71 |
| EEM |
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
4.64 |
-16.89 |
1,592.66 |
| XRT |
SPDR S&P Retail |
219.61 |
-24.14 |
1,586.42 |
| XOP |
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration &
Production |
177.76 |
-12.74 |
1,537.55 |
| Really Really Short |
| Ticker |
Name |
% Float Short |
1 Month % Change |
$Short ($, M) |
| RKH |
Market Vectors Bank and Brokerage |
398.71 |
-0.80 |
44.17 |
| FXE |
CurrencyShares Euro |
266.82 |
8.22 |
633.61 |
| XRT |
SPDR S&P Retail |
219.61 |
-24.14 |
1,586.42 |
| XOP |
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration &
Production |
177.76 |
-12.74 |
1,537.55 |
| RTH |
Market Vectors Retail |
120.71 |
-37.78 |
43.99 |
| CVOL |
C-Tracks Exchange-Traded Notes on the Citi
Volatility |
91.55 |
29.15 |
5.36 |
| DWAS |
PowerShares DWA SmallCap Technical Leaders |
90.83 |
197.16 |
7.03 |
| FXY |
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen |
90.08 |
100.25 |
192.04 |
| IWM |
iShares Russell 2000 |
86.89 |
-11.87 |
13,163.25 |
| KBWR |
PowerShares KBW Regional Banking |
79.48 |
-11.96 |
13.27 |
Data is believed to be accurate; however, transient market data
is often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the
exchanges.
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