The Singapore Exchange's $8.3 billion bid for its Australian counterpart indicates just how hot emerging markets stock trading is going to become, according to players who know best. This could theoretically become a huge emerging markets theme.
Three years ago, exchanges were the hottest things out there, culminating in the New York Stock Exchange's NYX $11 billion buyout of EuroNext and the Nasdaq's NDAQ $3.7 billion buyout of the Scandinavian OMX. While Australia is a thriving market, this deal demonstrates just how much someone will pay -- or rather, overpay -- for a credible bulkhead when the next round of consolidation heats up.
Watch the BM&F in Brazil as the poster child for what you might see when the globe gets back on track. We are already seeing overtures from Russian exchanges, Middle Eastern exchanges -- everything is in play again.. The question is how to trade it.
While NDAQ had a good day today, it is most likely to emerge as a buyer and not a seller at this point. NYX actually lagged the markets, perhaps because the Singapore-Australia deal would create a credible global competitor. Otherwise, foreign exchange operators rarely choose to cross-list their shares, making ADR opportunities scant. However, you can trade Germany's Deutsche Boerse DBOEY and the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Co. HKXCY:
With twice the market cap as NDAQ, DBOEY is also likely to emerge as a buyer instead of a seller. But even though HKXCY is bigger than both of them put together, shares jumped over 5% today on speculation that the Pacific Rim in particular is about to heat up.