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• Emerging Markets iPhone Would Provide Upside to Apple's $430 Value
• iPhone 4 Could Create 5% Upside for Apple's Stock
• What Would 100 Billion iPhone App Downloads Mean for Apple's Stock?

• AAPL 84% Rate It
• GOOG 87% Rate It
• MSFT 82% Rate It

Apple to Introduce iPhone 5 in September?

Source: Wikipedia

Apple ( AAPL ) is expected to introduce the new version of the iPhone in September this year according to a report from Bloomberg .

According to a recent report from IDC , Apple could lose market share from around 18% in 2011 to 17% by 2015 to Google's ( GOOG ) Android with Research in Motion ( RIMM ) BlackBerry OS and Microsoft ( MSFT ) Windows Phone 7 a potential threat. Hence the introduction of a new iPhone could be an important catalyst for Apple to overcome competition. Our $430 price estimate for Apple stock is about 35% above market price.

iPhone is the Single Biggest Driver to Stock

Since the iPhone accounts for 54% of Apple's value, an iPhone 5 announcement, a Sprint iPhone deal or an iPhone for emerging markets could all be catalysts for the iPhone business.

According to the Bloomberg report, Apple will come up with a stronger processor and a more advanced camera for iPhone. According to the same report, Apple is working on a cheaper iPhone specifically aimed for developing markets.

Looking at Impact on the Stock

Although its high average pricing and margins makes the iPhone a highly profitable business for Apple, its global mobile phone market share was only around 3% in 2010. Drag the trend line in the chart to see the impact on shares from market share gains.

You can check out for yourself by tweaking the chart above that a slight change in iPhone's market share can have a large impact on Apple's stock value.

See our Upside/ Downside Scenarios for Apple

See our upside and downside scenarios for Apple's stock by clicking on the chart or link above.

See our Upside / Downside for Apple

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