After months of speculation,
) is finally holding its 2013 product launch event. New iPhones,
including the 5S and the budget model 5C, are expected to be
unveiled. Moreover, as Apple has made clear with its graphic media
invitation to the event, which includes the slogan, "This should
brighten everyone's day," the new iPhones, particularly the plastic
5C, will likely come in a wide array of colors.
Whatever it is that Apple unleashes upon the world, we'll know what
it is in just a few short hours. Until then, here is commentary
from tech investing experts on what to expect.
Avoiding the Google Complex
by Michael Comeau
The key for Apple to extend its recent gains is to bring back the
magic of the good old days. All of Apple's recent product
announcements have been mostly incremental in nature.
In terms of sheer excitement, the company hasn't really brought the
thunder since 2010, which when it released the groundbreaking
iPhone 4 and the iPad, the latter of which actually didn't seem all
that exciting when it came out, at least for this guy.
Though to be fair, they've been building on some of the best
products in the history of technology.
My main fear is that the company goes down the road of the
) Android complex, which is destroying itself financially by
fighting a pointless specifications war centered around screen
sizes and processor speeds. The iPhone could probably use a
slightly larger screen, but I hope the company doesn't put out some
Michael Comeau edits Minyanville's
Buzz & Banter
and is also a regular columnist on Minyanville.com, focusing on
technology and consumer stocks. Read more of his work for
Comeau has a position in AAPL.
The Devil Is in the Details
by Andre Mouton
Apple is expected to announce its budget smartphone today -- the
iPhone 5C -- and investors should pay close attention to the
features and the price. If there's a big feature gap between this
model and the more expensive iPhone 5S, then Apple might be able to
get away with a sub-$400 price tag. Otherwise, the risk of
cannibalization will be high.
As it stands, for the last three quarters, the iPhone 4 and iPhone
have grabbed nearly half
of Apple's total iPhone sales. Customers are already migrating away
from the newest, most expensive model, and this development has
weighed on earnings. Gross margins fell to 36% in the second
quarter, from 42% a year earlier. Market share isn't Cupertino's
only problem. The iPhone 5C is likely to be a double-edged sword
that investors should treat with caution.
AndrÃ© Mouton is an independent investor who cut his teeth in
the dot-com crash and chewed his lip in the financial crisis. He is
a former writer for Offbeat Magazine in New Orleans and a touring
(but not itinerant) musician, who now lives in New York. Read more
of his work for Minyanville
This Is Just a Small Battle in a Long War
by Sean Udall
I could care less about what Apple releases today in the bigger
scheme of things, and over the next three quarters, it won't
The phones and/or products coming will be plenty good enough to
sell a lot of units; the key should be what Apple is working on,
what the comps are, what EPS will be, and what true innovation lies
underneath the hood. Lastly, I'd also add that one of Steve Jobs'
goals was to go thermonuclear on Google, and I think a plan has
been put in place. And folks, that plan isn't about iPhones versus
Android phones; they will only play a small part. (More on this
subject to come in my
Tech Strat Report
The important thing to do now is to focus on the algos (aka
high-frequency trading computers) and the weak hands, in order to
see how they react today and tomorrow. If they do something really
stupid, like take eight to 10 points or greater out of the stock,
I'll be looking for more long-sided entries.
In terms of trading, I'm moving my intermediate target to the $585
- $615 range. This time frame is in a two- to three-quarter window.
Near term, I'm thinking the stock will be rangebound, but it could
see a price as high as $525 or $535. I've moved my option targets
to these ranges, but I'm mainly focusing on longer-dated options
with strikes between $565 and $600. And I will be looking to
increase exposure on these if the algos can attack the weak hands
and force stops.
It seems like everyone is looking for -- and, in fact, is convinced
of -- a sell-the-news reaction to Apple. Therefore, the odds of
that occurring have been reduced and potentially eliminated.
Sean Udall is an investment strategist, portfolio manager and
proprietary trader with extensive experience across a wide variety
of asset classes, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and
derivatives. He's a recognized trader, prolific writer, and the
founder of the
, a technology-focused investment newsletter from Minyanville. Read
more of Sean's commentary
Udall has positions in AAPL and GOOG.
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