) favors the short side off an earnings-driven after-hours gain in
tonight's post-close session. Traders have seen their
earnings-driven after-hours gains narrow the next day in 60% of the
events we've tracked while negative trade is recently trending
toward widening in follow-on regular session play.
In other words, shorts may catch the better trade off an evening
gain, but they are also starting to see better widening movement
off an after-hours decline.
AAPL has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 27 of
the 40 quarters tracked in our database. The stock added to its
after-hours upside in next-day action 11 times, reversed direction
15 times -- or about 60% of the time -- and once remained even with
its after-hours move. On the downside, AAPL has recorded 13
earnings-driven after-hours declines - adding to its negative trade
seven times in next-day action, and reversing direction six
AAPL is due with its Q4 results in tonight's after-hours trade,
and analysts expect the company to report a profit of $7.94 per
share on revenue of $36.87 billion, according to Capital IQ.
Here's the historical data:
On July 23, 2013, AAPL gained 3.4% in night trade after beating
Q3 expectations and setting its Q4 revenue guidance in-line to
below the Street view. The stock firmed higher the next day,
closing the July 24 regular session up 5.1%.
On April 23, 2013, AAPL edged up 0.08% in evening trade after
beating on Q2 and setting its Q3 revenue view below expectations.
The stock dipped into the red the next day, closing down a slim
On Jan. 23, 2013, AAPL tumbled 10.3% in night trade after coming
in shy on Q1 revenue, beating on earnings, and setting Q2 revenue
guidance below the Street view. The stock moved lower the next day,
ending the Jan. 24 regular session down 12.3%.
On Oct. 25, 2012, AAPL dipped 0.2% in evening trade after coming
in shy on Q4 earnings and setting guidance below the Street view.
The stock added modestly to its downside the next day, ending the
Oct. 26 regular session off 0.9%.
On July 24, 2012, AAPL declined 5.1% in night trade after
reporting weaker-than-expected results and guidance. The stock
narrowed its downside slightly the next day, ending the July 25
regular session off 4.3%.
On April 24, 2012, AAPL jumped 6.9% in after-hours trade after
trouncing Q2 expectations and issuing Q3 guidance below the Street
view. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the April 25
regular session up 8.8%.
On Jan. 24, 2012, AAPL advanced 7.9% in evening trade after
blowing past Q1 estimates and setting mixed guidance for Q2. The
stock cut its upside the next day, closing the Jan. 25 regular
session up 6.2%.
On Oct. 18, 2011, AAPL declined 6.6% in after-hours action after
missing Q4 earnings estimates and setting Q1 guidance above the
Street view. The stock saw its downside narrow slightly the next
day, ending the Oct. 19 regular session off 5.5%.
On July 19, 2011, AAPL gained 5.2% in night trade after beating
Q3 estimates but also issuing a Q4 outlook below estimates. The
stock saw a good portion of its gains evaporate the next day,
closing the July 20 regular session up 2.6%.
On April 20, 2011, AAPL advanced 4% in after-hours trade after
beating Q2 estimates but issuing a Q3 view below Street
expectations. The stock lost some of its upside the following day,
closing the April 21 regular session up 2.4%.
On Jan. 18, 2011, AAPL edged up 1% in night trade after blowing
past Q1 estimates and setting its Q2 guidance above the Street
view. The stock lost its upside the following day, ending the Jan.
19 regular session off 0.5%.
On Oct. 18, 2010, AAPL declined 5.6% in evening trade after
beating Q4 expectations and setting mixed Q1 guidance. The stock
cut its downside the following day, closing the Oct. 19 regular
session off 2.6%.
On July 20, 2010, AAPL gained 2% in after-hours trade after
blowing past Q3 estimates and setting mixed Q4 guidance. The stock
narrowed its upside the following day, closing the July 21 regular
session up 0.9%.
On April 20, 2010, the stock gained 5.6% after easily beating
with Q2 results but setting mixed guidance. Shares rose a slightly
stronger 5.9% during the following day's regular session.
On Jan. 25, 2010, AAPL edged up 0.9% in after-hours trade after
easily beating Q1 expectations and setting its guidance above
Street estimates. The stock added to its upside the following day,
rising 1.4% by the Jan. 26 close.
On Oct. 19, 2009, AAPL leaped 6.1% in evening trade after
topping Q4 expectations and issuing mixed guidance that included an
earnings view below Street estimates. The stock cut its upside the
following day, ending up 4.7% in the Oct. 20 regular session.
On July 21, 2009, the stock gained 4.6% after a Q3 beat but
issued Q4 guidance that was below the Street view. Shares gained
3.4% the next day.
On April 22, 2009, the stock gained 2.3% after reporting a Q2
beat but guiding largely below the Street view for Q3. Shares were
up 3.2% the next day.
On Jan. 21, 2009, AAPL advanced 8.9% in after-hours trade after
reporting better-than-expected results but also issuing guidance
shy of Street estimates. It lost some of its gain the next day,
closing the Jan. 22 regular session up 6.6%.
On Oct. 21, 2008, AAPL advanced 12.3% in night trade after
coming in shy on Q4 revenue, beating on earnings, and setting
guidance below expectations. It lost a good portion of that gain
the next day, closing the Oct. 22 regular session up a more modest
On July 21, 2008, AAPL tumbled 11.1% in after-hours trade after
beating Q3 expectations but also issuing Q4 guidance below Street
estimates. It saw the bulk of that downside cut back the next day,
with the stock closing down a more modest 2.5% in the July 22
On April 23, 2008, AAPL declined 0.5% in after-hours trade after
topping Q2 expectations but offering mixed guidance. The stock
rebounded to end the April 24 regular session up 3.7%.
On Jan. 22, 2008, AAPL declined 11.4% in after-hours trade after
beating on Q1 but also setting Q2 guidance below the analyst
consensus. The stock cut its downside slightly on Jan. 23, ending
the regular session down 10.6%.
On Oct. 22, 2007, the stock gained 6.8% in the after-hours
session after the company reports ahead with Q4 results and guides
to beat. AAPL gained 6.7% the next day.
On July 25, 2007, AAPL gained 7.6% in night trade after topping
Q3 expectations and issuing Q4 guidance below Street estimates.
Shares trimmed those gains the next day, ending the regular session
On April 25, 2007, AAPL firmed 6.5% in evening action after
posting a sharp year-over-year increase in results and setting
guidance that was about in line with the Street view. The stock
lost a chunk of its gain the next day, ending up 3.6%.
On Jan. 17, AAPL lost 1.1% in after-hours trade after the
company posted a year-over-year increase in results but also issued
guidance below expectations. The declines expanded to a 6.1% slide
by the close of the regular session.
On Oct. 18, 2006, AAPL rose 4.4% in after-hours trade when the
company beat Q4 expectations. Although the company forecast Q1
below Street views, investors focused on the strong Q4 and took
shares higher the next day. AAPL closed the regular session up
On July 19, 2006, the stock jumped 8.3% in the evening hours
after the company handily topped Q3 estimates, guidance was mixed.
The gain improved to 11.8% the next day.
On April 19, 2006 AAPL gained 4.2% in evening activity after the
company beat Q2 EPS estimates although sales came in short. It also
guided for Q3 to be in line to below estimates. The shares gave
back some gains the next day, ending the regular session up 3%.
On January 18, 2006, AAPL slipped 3% in night trade after
beating Q1 expectations but setting Q2 forecasts below Street
views. The shares fell further the next day, ending the regular
session down 4.1%.
On Oct. 11, 2005, AAPL tumbled 9.8% in after-hours session after
the company missed revenue expectations. It narrowed its downside
on Oct. 12, losing a less aggressive 4.5% in the regular
On July 13, 2005, AAPL gained 3.5% after hours after Q3 results
topped Street targets and the company guided Q4 in line. It widened
its gain in the July 14 regular session, climbing 6.2% by the
On April 13, 2005 AAPL dropped 1% after hours after the company
topped estimates and guided higher. It fell further in the April 14
regular session, ending down 9.2%.
On Jan. 12, 2005, AAPL jumped 11.5% after hours after the
company's earnings far exceeded expectations and it guided above
Street estimates. It cut those gains in the Jan. 13 regular
session, ending up 6.6%.
AAPL shares leaped 6.5% the night of Oct. 13, 2004 after the
company blew past Street expectations and set guidance well ahead
of estimates. The stock soared higher in next-day trade, ending the
Oct. 14 regular session up 13.1%.
On July 14, 2004 AAPL reported better-than-expected results and
the stock ramped up 7.1% in that night's after-hours. It closed the
following day's regular session up a healthy 11.3%.
On April 14, 2004 AAPL jumped 9.9% on better-than-expected
results and ended the next day up 9.9%.
In the following three events AAPL topped Street expectations
The stock slipped 4.9% the night of Jan. 14, 2004 and declined
5.5% by the following day's close.
Back on Oct. 15, 2003, AAPL ended the evening session off 4.8%.
It added to its declines the next day, declining 6.3%.
On July 16 of 2003, AAPL rose a modest 1.4%, but followed that
gain with a 5.2% rise the next day.