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Another Triple-Digit Drop Has the Dow Swimming South of 12,800

By Schaeffer's Investment Research May 09, 2012, 08:35:55 AM EDT

The bears are out with a vengeance this morning, with futures on all three major market indexes wallowing in the red. Heading into the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is bracing for a 101-point plunge, while the broader S&P 500 Index ( SPX ) is down nearly 14 points.

  • The SPDR Gold Trust ( GLD ) and the iShares Silver Trust ( SLV ) are poised to fall further below these formerly supportive levels.
  • Will today's bearish bias push the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) to a close above this notable mark ?
  • Schaeffer's Senior Options Strategist Tony Venosa gives his take on a recent round of sector rotation , and its relevance to market performance .
Among equities in focus, Demand Media (DMD ) is poised to pop post-earnings; Blue Nile's (NILE ) quarterly results interrupted Schaeffer's Senior Technical Strategist Ryan Detrick's appearance on Fox Business Network last night -- no easy feat, mind you; and, analysts may change their tune on STEC, Inc. (STEC ) following its turn in the earnings confessional.

And now, on to the numbers...

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures

Market Statistics

Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) saw 1,491,407 call contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 1,457,887 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.98, while the 21-day moving average was 0.66.

NYSE and Nasdaq summary

Volatility indices

From the Trading Floor

Additionally, Venosa chimed in on the SPX , as the broad-market barometer "broke through its April low in yesterday's trading, but managed to close back above it. The next major support level I will be watching for is its March low at 1,340. A close beneath this level will indicate a change in trend."

Currencies and Commodities

  • The U.S. dollar index is pointed north this morning, with the greenback last seen 0.3% higher to toy with the $80 mark.
  • Crude oil is set to add to its five-session losing streak , with crude for June delivery down 0.8% at $96.21 per barrel.
  • After finishing at their lowest level since Jan. 3, gold futures have pulled below the $1,600 level, with the malleable metal off 1.2% at $1,585.20 an ounce.

Currencies and commodities

In earnings news, Demand Media (DMD - 7.93) reported a narrower first-quarter loss of $1.8 million, or 2 cents per share, as net revenue improved 8.5% to $82.9 million. On an adjusted basis, DMD earned 7 cents per share. Analysts, on average, were looking for a profit of 5 cents per share on $79.6 million in revenue. For the current quarter, DMD predicted net revenue of $85 million to $87 million, with full-year revenue expected to range between $347 million and $353 million. By contrast, Wall Street is looking for second-quarter revenue of just $83.3 million, and full-year revenue of $340.6 million. Short interest currently accounts for an impressive 14.5% of the stock's available float. DMD is set to jump 22.8% right out of the gate.

Blue Nile, Inc. (NILE - 27.28) said its first-quarter profit plunged 94% on a year-over-year basis to $154,000, or 1 cent per share, while revenue edged up 3.6% to $83.1 million. The results were mixed, with analysts calling for a heftier per-share profit of 6 cents on $82.3 million in revenue. Looking ahead, the jeweler forecast full-year sales of $384 million to $417 million, bracketing the Street's call for $387.7 million in sales. Short-term calls were the preferred option on NILE ahead of earnings, with the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) docked at 0.70. NILE is up 8% in pre-market trading.

Finally, STEC, Inc. (STEC - 7.70) swung to a first-quarter loss of $10.7 million, or 23 cents per share, while revenue fell 46.9% to $50.4 million. Excluding items, the loss narrowed to 17 cents per share. The results were mixed, as analysts were expecting a loss of 15 cents per share on sales of $49.9 million. Looking ahead, the company is projecting an adjusted current-quarter loss of 26 cents to 28 cents per share on revenue between $40 million and $42 million. Meanwhile, the Street is predicting a loss of just 14 cents per share on sales of $51.5 million. No less than 78% of analysts slapped STEC with a "hold" or "strong sell" rating, and with the stock down 12.7% ahead of the bell, more bearish brokerage notes could follow.

Earnings and Economic Data

Today's docket features the latest wholesale inventories data , as well as the usual report on weekly crude inventories . Wall Street will also hear earnings from Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) , AOL (AOL), Macy's (M) , Priceline.com (PCLN), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) , Agrium (AGU), Dean Foods (DF) , EOG Resources (EOG), MannKind (MNKD) , Tesla Motors (TSLA), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) .

Overseas Trading

Asian markets ended broadly lower today, as the ongoing political uncertainty in Greece continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Weakness in oil futures kept energy stocks under pressure, with Cnooc and PetroChina among the notable laggards. Meanwhile, Japanese exporters struggled as the yen gained ground against the euro and the U.S. dollar. By the close, China's Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.7%, Japan's Nikkei lost 1.5%, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.9%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.8%.

The selling mood has also spread to Europe, where Spanish banks are in the spotlight at midday. Bankia SA is leading the sector-wide swoon after a downgrade from J.P. Morgan Cazenove, which dropped its rating to "underweight." Traders are also keeping a wary eye trained on Athens, where leftist leader Alexis Tsipras is urging politicians to recant their support for austerity measures. At last check, London's FTSE 100 is down 1.3%, the French CAC 40 is off 0.6%, and the German DAX has slipped 0.04%.

Overseas markets

Unusual Put and Call Activity:

For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .

Unusual options activity - puts

Unusual options activity - calls

Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Options

Referenced Stocks: CBOE, CSCO, GLD, SLV, SPX



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