Bespoke Investment Group
conducted a survey of its subscribers to gauge overall market
sentiment. There were 299 respondents with 203 of those
identified as institutional investors.
It doesn't appear that the market is full of blind, bullish
optimism like some would suggest. Roughly 53.5 percent of
respondents believe that the market will be lower one month from
now with institutional investors more bearish than individuals.
61.5 percent of the 53.5 percent were what is often called the
The survey found that the majority of respondents believe that
the big gains are in: 39 percent believe that six months from
now, the market will be up 0-5 percent while 37.8 percent believe
that the market will be lower (18 percent believe a more than 5
percent loss). Only 23 percent believe the market will finish the
year up an additional 5 percent or more.
What's everybody's favorite sector over the next six months?
Technology. With 17.5 percent of the vote, technology is well
above the next most popular, energy, with 14.2 percent. Do
investors think that Apple (NYSE:
) is set for a big run to the upside that will take other tech
names with it?
The least favorite sector is utilities with 16.8 percent
professing to be utilities bears. The next highest was materials
at 11.9 percent.
How will the U.S. stock market perform versus the rest of the
world? Nearly 58.5 percent of respondents said that it will
outperform other world markets.
Outside of stocks, the survey found that 70.6 percent of
respondents believe the 10-year treasury yield is going higher.
Gold is going higher too, if 59.2 percent of surveyed investors
are correct. Oil, however, is heading down according to 55.9
Finally, 20.1 percent of respondents said that their portfolio
is 60 percent exposed to equities. 48.4 percent are between 50
and 70 percent exposed.
What does all of this mean? It means that as of now, investors
aren't all-in despite the record highs on the major indices. And
just as the financial media has reported, investors don't believe
that this bull has a lot of run left before a correction
reports that Piper Jaffray analysts Craig Johnson and Leah
Williams see a correction of up to 10 percent.
Others, like Jeremy Seigel in a
, says that as long as everybody is afraid of the pullback, a
technical correction isn't likely to occur, unless the Fed starts
talking about taking away stimulus measures.
The survey had a small sampling but had similar findings to
others gauging market sentiment. Whether or not data like this
are useful is subject to debate but what is clear is that the
market is not full of bull market euphoria.
(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment
advice. All rights reserved.
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