Analyst Actions: Credit Suisse on US Metals & Mining; Revising Estimates and Target Prices

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Still Expect More Upside in Base Metals: As our global team points out in today's quarterly commodity update titled "The Pause that Refreshes", we believe the risk/reward opportunity in the metals & mining sector continues to favor further upside in the base metals and PGMs over the course of 2012.

Commodity Forecast Revisions: Changes to our global metals forecasts are relatively small this quarter, with no changes to our copper, palladium, and gold outlook and only minor changes to our aluminum forecast. We are raising our 2012 platinum forecast by ~7% (2013 basically unchanged).

We are lowering our 2012 met coal forecast by ~3% (2013 unchanged) and our seaborne thermal coal price by ~10% in both 2012 and 2013. Domestically, we are lowering our U.S. thermal coal price by an average of 11% for 2013.

Commodity Views -

Copper: Rising Chinese demand and supply-side struggles should continue to drive prices higher.

Palladium: Improving global auto production (particularly in the US) and supply side constraints to push prices higher.

Aluminum: While production cuts are smaller than expected, cost pressures continue to support prices.

Coal: Our outlook for global met coal prices remains positive, while US domestic thermal coal prices will likely under pressure for the foreseeable future due to low nat gas prices, high inventories and regulatory pressures.

Summary of Earnings Revisions -

Century Aluminum (CENX, $8.71, OUTPERFORM, TP $12.00) - We are lowering our 2012 estimate from $0.57 to $0.39, vs. Consensus of $0.11. Our 2013 estimate remains unchanged.

Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NOR, $10.35, OUTPERFORM, TP $15.00) - We are lowering our 2012 estimate from $1.06 to $0.95, vs. Consensus of $0.80. Our 2013 estimate remains unchanged.

Stillwater Mining (SWC, $12.06, OUTPERFORM, TP $16.00) - We are raising our 2012 estimate from $0.80 to $0.89, vs. Consensus of $0.73. Our 2013 estimate remains unchanged.

Suncoke Energy (SXC, $14.57, OUTPERFORM, TP $17.00) - We are lowering our 2013 estimate from $1.67 to $1.65, vs. Consensus of $1.47. Our 2012 estimate remains unchanged.

Top Picks: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc ( FCX ), Peabody Energy Corporation ( BTU ), Reliance Steel ( RS ), Nucor Corporation ( NUE ), AK Steel Holding Corporation ( AKS ), Stillwater Mining (SWC).



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

Copyright (C) 2014 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.


This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: AKS , BTU , FCX , NUE , RS

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