Q412 Results Beat on Downstream: "Imperial reported EPS of
C$1.26, above our C$0.91 forecast and consensus of C$0.97. Relative
to our forecast, the main driver was higher than expected
downstream earnings (C$544 million vs. our C$323 million forecast).
Q412 production averaged 285.2 kboe/d, below our 291.2 kboe/d
forecast. Both Cold Lake and natural gas production were lower than
expected (155 kb/d vs. 160 kb/d forecast and 187 mmcf/d vs. our 195
First Production at Kearl Expected in Q113: "Imperial commenced
commissioning of the Kearl initial development ('KID') in late
2012. Production of mined diluted bitumen from the first froth
treatment train is expected in Q113 and will ramp up to 110 kb/d
over the next several months. The final cost for the KID is
expected to be C$12.9 billion (i.e. $117k per flowing bbl). In
2011, the Kearl Expansion Project ('KEP'; 110 kb/d) was sanctioned
for C$8.9 billion (~C$81k per flowing bbl) and plans are for a Q4
2015 start. Full capacity of 345 kb/d is expected to be achieved by
Other Updates: "Imperial announced in December 2012 it will
participate as a 50% owner with ExxonMobil Canada in the Celtic
Exploration acquisition. While shareholder approvals have been
granted, the agreement is still pending approval by Canadian
regulatory authorities. Imperial's acquisition of a 50% interest in
Celtic will be for a consideration of C$1.55 billion. Including
this amount, 2013 capex is expected to be C$7 billion."
Valuation: "Imperial is trading at 8.1x 2013E EBIDAX vs. 6.3x
for its North American integrated peers. During the past 3-, 5-
year periods, Imperial's shares have traded, on average at 9.0x and
9.8x the current year's EBIDAX. Our C$53.00 equates to 9.0x 2014E
EBIDAX of C$5,416 million."
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