Alpari Grain Outlook 01/29

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Monday's weekly export inspections report showed wheat inspected for near-term export came in estimated at 22.2 million bushels versus 22.5 the week prior and four week average of 13.2. The market responded by dropping down five cents after its release as traders expected better exports of 28 m.b. or better. I did notice the world's largest monthly wheat buyer, Egypt was in for 3 m.b. but that's just a nibble. There's talk of the recent political upheaval there would put their AG apartment on hold as offices and personnel fear showing up. But it's all about the wheat going to the feed nation in Asia. Animal populations are stable or constant. They don't double Hog and chicken numbers overnight. So feed wheat exports remained constant to the current slow export base. We need those large spontaneous exports of wheat for human consumption. Without that, any wheat rally of any measurable amount would come as a followers roll to a bean and corn rally or we break dormancy in March and have bad weather here creating a production worry and fear rally.

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