Alcoa Starts Earnings Season Maintaining Status as Short Play off After-Hours Report

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Alcoa ( AA ) is due with its Q3 results in tonight's after-hours. The stock is historically a short favorite when it comes to adding to downside momentum in the wake of its earnings-driven after-hours declines, as well as narrowing its after-hours gains in next-day action.

AA has recorded an after-hours decline in 20 of the last 38 quarters we've tracked, and 12 times, or 60% of the time, that decline has widened for deeper losses by the following day's regular session close.

On the upside, AA has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 18 of the 38 quarters we've tracked over the last 10 years. In 13 of those quarters, 72% of the time, the after-hours gain has narrowed or reversed into the red in the following day's regular session. Longs should be cautious in this stock. The reversal pattern on gains makes it even more appealing for shorts to check out where any potential ceiling levels may develop in tonight's after-hours.

AA is expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.05 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion, according analysts polled by Capital IQ.

Here's the historical data:

On July 8, 2013, AA edged 0.1% lower in evening trade after beating on Q2 earnings and meeting revenue expectations. The stock maintained the same 0.1% decline in the close on July 9.

On April 8, 2013, AA dropped 1.3% in after-hours action after beating Q1 earnings estimates and meeting on revenue. The stock reversed course the next day, ending the April 9 regular session flat.

On Jan. 8, 2013, AA edged up 0.9% in after-hours trade after meeting Q4 earnings estimates and beating on revenue. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Jan. 9 regular session down 0.2%.

On Oct. 9, 2012, AA dipped 0.2% in night trade after beating on Q3 and reaffirming its forward targets. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing the Oct. 10 regular session off 4.6%.

On July 9, 2012, AA edged up 0.1% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 revenue expectations. The stock reversed sharply the next day, closing the July 10 regular session off 4.1%.

On April 10, 2012, AA advanced 5.5% in evening trade after blowing past Q1 Street expectations. The stock added modestly to its gains the next day, ending up 5.2% on April 11.

On Jan. 9, 2012, AA edged up 0.2% in after-hours action after topping Q4 expectations. The stock cut its upside slightly the next day, closing the Jan. 10 regular session up a thin 0.1%.

On Oct. 11, 2011, AA dropped 4.6% in evening trade after reporting mixed Q3 results. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the Oct. 12 regular session off 2.4%.

On July 11, 2011, AA declined 1.3% in after-hours trade after meeting Q2 earnings estimates and beating on revenue. The stock narrowed its downside slightly the next day, ending the July 12 regular session off 1.26%.

On April 11, 2011, AA shed 3.2% in evening trade after beating earnings estimates and meeting on revenue. The stock moved deeper south the following day, closing the April 12 regular session off 6%.

On Jan. 10, 2011, AA declined 1.7% in after-hours action after beating Q4 expectations. The stock cut its downside slightly in the Jan. 11 regular session, ending Jan. 11 trade off 0.9%.

On Oct. 7, 2010, AA gained 2.5% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected Q3 results. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Oct. 8 regular session up 5.6%.

On July 12, 2010, AA advanced 3% in evening trde after topping earnings expectations. The stock lost a chunk of its gain the following day, closing the July 13 regular session up 1.2%.

On April 12, 2010, AA edged 0.4% lower after reporting a narrower year-over-year loss and just missing revenue expectations. The stock added to its downside in the April 13 regular session, ending down 1.5%.

On Jan. 11, 2010, AA shed 4.9% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations and beating on revenue. The stock added to its downside the following day, sliding 11% by the closing bell on Jan. 12.

On Oct. 7, 2009, AA firmed 5.6% in after-hours trade after posting an unexpected profit. The stock lost the bulk of its gains the following day, ending the Oct. 8 regular session up 1%.

On July 8, 2009, the stock gained 4% in evening trading after AA beat with Q2 results. Shares closed down 2.4% the following day.

On April 7, 2009, AA declined 3.4% in after-hours action after posting a sharp year-over-year decline in its quarterly results. It reversed direction the following day, ending the April 8 regular session up 3.4%.

On Jan. 12, 2009, AA edged down 0.6% in after-hours trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in revenue and swinging to a loss. The stock tumbled deeper in the red the next day, losing 5% by the close on Jan. 13.

On Oct. 7, 2008, AA declined 3.6% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations and announcing it was suspending its stock buyback. The stock tumbled lower in the Oct. 8 regular session, losing 12% by the closing bell.

On July 8, 2008, the stock gained 3.7% during evening trading as AA beat with Q2 results. The stock reversed and closed down 2.4% the next day.

On April 7, 2008, AA edged up 0.03% in after-hours trade after the company missed the Street's estimates by a penny-a-share but beat revenue estimates. The gain reversed the following day with shares ending lower by 0.7%.

On Jan. 9, 2008, the stock gained 3.2% after AA reported ahead of the Street with Q4 and FY sales. The gain was clipped to 0.6% the next day.

On Oct. 9, 2007, AA edged up 0.3% in after-hours trade after beating on sales but missing on earnings. It turned south the following day, losing 2.4% by the closing bell.

On July 9, 2007, AA dipped 0.7% in night trade after Q2 profits slipped from a year ago on lower-than-expected sales. Shares eased further the next day, closing the regular session down 1.6%.

On April 10, 2007, AA came off a trading halt and edged up 2.2% after topping Q1 estimates. However, shares could not hold onto that momentum and closed the following day session up only 0.5%.

On Jan. 9, 2007, AA gained 4.7% in the evening hours after the company reported ahead of the Street and the year-ago period with Q4 results. The stock gained 6% the next day.

On Oct. 10, 2006, AA reported improved year-over-year results but guided for sales shy of the then-current Street view. The stock declined 5.9% in after-hours trade, but narrowed a bit in the Oct. 11 regular session, ending the day down 5%.

On July 10, 2006, AA dropped 4.5% in after-hours trade when the company reported Q2 sales that missed estimates. The shares fell slightly more the following day, ending the regular session down 4.8%.

AA ramped 5.9% higher the night of April 10 after the company posted results up sharply over year ago levels. It failed to add to the upside momentum the next day but still managed to see a 3.8% rise by the close on April 11.

On Jan. 9, 2006, shares fell 3% after the company missed by 2 cents with Q4 EPS and was about in line with sales. The loss expanded modestly to 3.1% the next day.

On Oct. 10, 2005, Alcoa edged up 1.8% in evening trade after the company beat on EPS but posted revenue just shy of the Street target. It narrowed its upside slightly the next day, adding only 0.8% between the bells.

On July 7, 2005 Alcoa advanced 2.5% in after-hours trading after the company beat the Street on both revenue and earnings. It firmed even higher in the July 8 regular session, rising 4.2% by the closing bell.

On April 6, 2005 Alcoa added 2.2% in after-hours trade after the company edged out Q1 earnings estimates but came in light on the revenue side. The stock pushed higher on April 7, rising 4.9% by that day's regular session close.

On Jan. 10, 2005, Alcoa missed earnings and revenue expectations and the stock edged down 1% in that night's after-hours trade. It was hit with more aggressive downside trade on Jan. 11, ending the regular session off 2.6%.

On Oct. 7, 2004 Alcoa lost 1.4% in after-hours trade after the company reported in-line EPS but came in shy on the revenue line. The stock added to its negative momentum on Oct. 8, closing out the bell-to-bell session with a 2% decline.

Back on June 7 of 2004 Alcoa was hit for a 3.5% decline in evening play after the company missed on earnings and posted better-than-expected revenue results. The stock managed to pare its losses the next day, closing out the day session with a more modest 0.6% decline.

Finally, on April 6, 2004 Alcoa slimmed down 3.7% in night trade after the company posted revenue ahead of estimates but missed on EPS. It ended the April 7 regular session with a more aggressive 5% decline.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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