Thursday, May 10, 2012
The favorable Jobless Claims reading this morning is welcome,
particularly given last week's April non-farm payroll miss. The
labor market is at the core of the economic recovery story, and the
weak run of recent jobs reports has been raising questions about
But this positive news is unlikely to cause a shift in the
market's focus from the continuing Greek saga. Even the soft
), a bellwether for global tech spending trends, and lower than
expected Chinese trade growth numbers had European angles,
highlighting that the region's problems are more than just a
headline risk for the broader global economy.
Last week's soft jobs report for April, which came after a
similarly disappointing reading the month before, appeared to
confirm the fears of many that the labor market might be losing
momentum. Today's Jobless Claims data is reassuring in the sense
that it runs counter to that trend. Initial Jobless Claims dropped
1K last week to 367K. The prior-week's tally was revised higher by
3K from the originally reported 365K.
So, in a way, one could say that saw a 2K rise from last week's
level, while the expectation was for a roughly 5K increase. The
four-week average, which helps smooth out the inherent week-to-week
jumpiness of this number, dropped by 5.2K to 379K.
This is a reassuring read on the labor market as it helps
confirm the much sharper fall last week and helps reverse the
negative trend of the preceding weeks. If this trend remains in
place over the next few weeks and the weekly claims tally drops
back to the 360K level, then it will confirm that the seasonal
distortions explanation for the recent weakness in the labor
market. We are certainly not there yet, but this is a net-net good
Cisco's weak guidance for the current quarter and its lack of
visibility about the second half of the year is disconcerting given
the company's status as a proxy for global tech spending trends.
Since the bulk of Cisco's revenue each quarter comes from new
sales, its outlook has long been viewed in the market as providing
insights into corporate IT spending trends.
Europe was cited as key factor in the company's soft outlook,
which figures in the weak guidance from
). Priceline also reported strong earnings after the close on
Wednesday, but its current quarter guidance fell short of
Director of Research
CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO): Free Stock Analysis
PRICELINE.COM (PCLN): Free Stock Analysis
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