ADP Ahead by a Penny, Revs In Line - Analyst Blog

By Zacks.com May 01, 2012, 10:31:01 AM EDT

Automatic Data Processing Inc. ( ADP ) reported third quarter 2012 earnings of 92 cents per share, a penny ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Earnings increased 8.2% year over year, primarily due to higher share repurchase activity in the quarter.

Quarter Details

Revenues increased 6.7% year over year to $2.92 billion and was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Organic growth was 6.0% in the quarter. The better-than-expected result was driven by strong new business sales, improving client retention and incremental revenue from recent acquisitions.

Employer Services revenue increased 7.0% year over year (6.0% organically) to $2.11 billion. The number of employees on clients' payrolls in the United States grew 3.3% in the quarter on a same-store-sales basis. PEO Services revenue spiked 15.0% year over year to $513.7 million in the third quarter. Dealer Services revenue climbed 7.0% year over year to $431.9 million.

Interest on funds held for clients declined 10% year over year to $133.3 million, due to a decline of 40 basis points (bps) in the average interest yield to 2.5%, partially offset by a 5.0% increase in average client funds balances to $21.7 billion.

Total expenses in the reported quarter increased 7.1% year over year to $2.25 billion, attributable to higher operating expenses (up 8.7% year over year) and selling, general & administrative expense (up 7.8% year over year).

The company reported pre-tax earnings of $685.6 million, up 5.0% annually. However, pre-tax margin declined 40 bps year over year to 23.5% in the reported quarter.

Employer Services' pre-tax margin increased 10 bps on a year-over-year basis. PEO Services pre-tax margin improved 50 bps, while Dealer Services pre-tax margin enhanced 120 bps on an annual basis in the reported quarter.

Net income increased 6.7% year over year to $452.4 million. Net margin, however, remained flat at 15.5% in the quarter.

As of March 31, 2012, cash and cash equivalents (including short-term marketable securities) were $1.69 billion, compared with $1.36 billion as of December 31, 2011. Long-term debt decreased to $17.3 million in the quarter from $25.5 million in the prior quarter. ADP purchased 8.9 million shares for $445.0 million during the reported quarter.

Guidance

For fiscal 2012, ADP expects total revenue to increase in the range of 7.0%-9.0%. Earnings are expected to increase 8%-9% over the year-ago level of $2.52. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2012 is pegged at $2.74 per share.

Employer Services revenue is expected to grow approximately 7%. However, pre-tax margin is estimated to remain flat. The company expects pays per control to increase approximately 2.5% to 3.0% (prior outlook 2.5%) for fiscal 2012.

PEO Services revenue is forecasted to improve 17.0%. Pre-tax margin is expected to grow slightly on a year-over-year basis. For fiscal 2012, ADP expects Dealer Services revenue to increase in the 9.0%-10.0% range with a pre-tax margin expansion of at least 50 bps.

The company expects interest on funds held for clients to decline $45.0 million-$55.0 million or 8%-10% from $540.1 million in fiscal 2011. However, the company expects 6%-7% increase in the average client fund balances.

Our Recommendation

We believe that ADP will continue to outperform the broader market based on strong new business sales, diversified product portfolio, improving customer retention, accretive acquisitions, strong balance sheet and shareholder-friendly programs (aggressive share buybacks, dividend) over the long term. However, increasing competition from Paychex Inc. ( PAYX ) and a gloomy macro outlook in Europe are major headwinds in the near term.

We have a Neutral recommendation on ADP over the long term. Currently, ADP has a Zacks #2 Rank, which implies a Buy rating on a short-term basis.


 
AUTOMATIC DATA ( ADP ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PAYCHEX INC ( PAYX ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Business, Stocks

Referenced Stocks: ADP, PAYX



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