Adam Michael: Base Stock Evaluation on $90 Oil
Source: George Mack of
Platform Advisors Founder Adam Michael searches the globe for
oil and gas discovery stories with established cash flows that
support share value in reasonably secure political environments.
In this exclusive interview with
The Energy Report,
Adam reveals some names from his own portfolio holdings that he
believes could generate considerable upside production growth to
return significant multiples for investors, even if oil prices
hover at $90/bbl for the next year.
: Apache Corporation Approach Resources Inc. Canacol Energy Ltd.
DeeThree Exploration Ltd. EOG Resources Murphy Oil Corp. Newfield
Exploration Company Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. Rosetta
TransGlobe Energy Corp.
The Energy Report:
We've had a 10% correction in Brent crude since the end of April,
and oil has been a bit weak as we're starting to see some real
signs of improvement in the U.S. economy where it really
counts-employment. What factors are putting downward pressure on
I think the biggest factor over the last year has been
quantitative easing (QE), which has led to speculators entering
into the crude futures market in proportions that I haven't seen
before. For instance, the net long in crude oil futures by
speculators is more than twice as high as it was back in 2008.
This has gotten the attention of Congress, and recently we've
seen the Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
CME Group (
, begin to raise margin requirements for crude futures. I think
the goal is to get some of the speculative money out of crude
futures, and that's one of the reasons we've seen a decline over
the last month.
Sounds like a healthy thing that could dampen the potential for a
I think so. Crude oil dropped $20 in a matter of a couple of
weeks. That's a pretty sharp correction, but I think it was
healthy because it helped wipe out some of the excess
speculation. There could be some more downside to go but,
historically, crude kind of tops out sometimes during the summer
and maybe late June and early July. I don't see any reason why
that wouldn't play out this year. We're still in a kind of
historically strong period for crude oil. I'm not sure how much
down side there is from here.
In terms of oil price per barrel, is there a sweet spot where the
macroeconomy can remain vigorous? What is the upside
price-per-barrel limit on commodity oil?
Well, I have read various opinions on this and I have to think
that a good price for oil right now would be somewhere in that
$90-$100/bbl range. That would allow the economy to keep taking
steps and provide for improvement in global industrial production
and gross domestic product (GDP) without choking off too much
demand. So, I think $90-$100 is a great price for crude oil, and
that is kind of a sweet spot. The kind of volatility we could see
is $80-$120/bbl. I don't know how long it will remain there at
those swing points. So, I think $90-100 is the right price.
Do you have a forecast for oil?
I don't really have a forecast, but for the longer term I use
$90/bbl crude in my models and for my sensitivity analysis. I
look at what kind of cash flow a company can generate with $100
or $80 oil. I think $90 is a good, safe number to use.
Do you feel that $90 oil is a conservative enough estimate to
build your models for the next 12 months? The next 24 months?
Well, I think it is a good number through the end of 2011. As
global demand continues to creep higher, eventually, we're going
to soak up that spare capacity that OPEC has, and that's when
things will get a little more interesting. That's probably a 2012
event, but then we're talking $110-$120/bbl oil. At some point,
the price will get high enough that it will support some demand
destruction-but we're not there yet.
The U.S. just ran up against the federal debt ceiling of $14.3
trillion back on May 16, and the credit and equity markets really
want that ceiling to be exceeded (at least temporarily). But it
seems pretty obvious that something must be done to reduce debt
to a lower percentage of GDP. What impact would this kind of
austerity have on the economy? Will it strengthen the U.S.
dollar? Will it hurt oil? Will it hurt energy companies?
Obviously, the debt ceiling is a hot topic right now. I am
guessing that Congress will probably negotiate with the
president, and the negotiations might go all the way up to the
deadline on August 2. I'm not sure how big of an effect it's
going to have, and one of the reasons is that there seems to be a
shortage of bonds because investors are having a tough time
finding yield. So, there's a really healthy credit market out
there right now.
Clearly, a default by the U.S. Treasury on government bonds
would be a very bad thing, but I think there's about a 0% chance
of that happening. There will be much talk over the summer as
it's negotiating. Cooler heads will prevail, and I'm sure we will
do what needs to be done on the debt ceiling with a combination
of austerity measures; but the bottom line is that there's a
healthy economy out there. If it weren't, credit spreads would
not be this tight. So, I'm actually pretty positive on the
economy right now. This summer could be a little tricky as we
hear more about the debt ceiling and as, you know, investors can
be short-term minded sometimes. Ultimately, I think this plays
out well for the economy. The dollar is probably due for a rally,
but it doesn't necessarily mean that commodity prices will go
down. Sometimes they go up with a stronger dollar; it doesn't
happen often, but it can. So, the bottom line is I am positive on
the global economy. I think we will get our debt ceiling figured
out and we will just keep humming along.
Aside from buying small caps for your portfolios, what is your
general investment thesis?
I like to look at companies that have a proven reserve, cash flow
or something else that I can get my hands around for a base-case
evaluation. In addition to that, I like to see some kind of
embedded call option in the form of a large land package-that is
at the top of the learning curve where there's a lot of leverage
Is it hard to find stable cash flows and rising production,
especially in politically stable jurisdictions?
I don't think so. Domestically, in this latest cycle, we've seen
the emergence of unconventional oil through the development of
the Bakken Shale, which is probably the most widely known
unconventional oil play. But other plays are developing now that
have a lot of upside running room. And it's very much analogous
to what we saw in the last cycle with the emergence of
unconventional shale gas. Now, I think we're just seeing the same
thing as history repeats-or let me say, 'as history rhymes'-this
time it's the emergence of unconventional oil, where I think
there's a lot of running room. And there are other sources out
there besides the Bakken that are starting to emerge, which also
have good running room.
Where are you finding these characteristics right now?
Not to be confused with the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, there's
an emerging play called the Alberta Bakken that stretches through
Montana and into Southern Alberta. I think it's going to see a
lot of drilling and appraisal work done over the summer. You
can't do much over the winter. In Alberta, a lot of the roads are
closed for spring break up, and now we're just getting on the
other side of that.
Rosetta Resources Inc. (
Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE:NFX)
are the two big players south of the border in Montana, and
they've been doing science and vertical wells to test the Alberta
Bakken. From what we've heard on recent conference calls, both
companies are pretty excited about it and are going to start
On the northern side in Southern Alberta, you've got a handful
of micro-cap players with good land positions. Just in the last
couple of weeks, we've seen the first results come out that were
made public by
DeeThree Exploration Ltd. (TSX.V:DTX)
. I think we're at the top of the learning curve, and the initial
results look really good. So, there's a lot of running room here
for these guys.
Is DeeThree a company that you own?
DeeThree is mostly natural gas, which is expected to be stable
over the next 12 months at best. Where does the upside come from
Well, it is currently doing a couple thousand barrels oil
equivalent per day (boe/d), and most of that is gas-probably 70%
gas and the rest a mixture of light oil and liquids-so you have a
little bit of cash flow there, which I like to see. It also has a
couple hundred thousand acres in the Southern Alberta Bakken
play, and I think, at least 70,000 acres in what I call the
"sweet spot." So, there's a lot of running room there. DeeThree
just drilled its first well and completed a frack. The average
one-day test rate was 250 boe/d. The company is now removing the
frack string and putting in production pipe. That's a very
positive first result for its first horizontal well. And there
are other excited players also in the play-big players, at
Murphy Oil Corp. (
signed a joint venture (JV) with DeeThree and has drilled a
couple of wells that are rumored to be pretty good. Murphy has
committed to drilling four wells on DeeThree's acreage by
year-end to earn a 60% working interest in about 15,000 acres.
DeeThree is being carried on the wells and will receive revenue
from first production.
Is that JV with Murphy on the Lethbridge property?
It sure is.
You sound optimistic about this play.
Well, I've seen the cycle repeat over and over wherein you have
an unconventional play that's in its drilling stages, and it
takes a few months for industry to crack the right science to
produce the most assets in the most optimal way. The wells should
become more prolific with time, and drilling cost should trend
Where else are you looking?
Well, there's a company I mentioned in my interview a year ago
The Energy Report
that I really like over in Egypt called
TransGlobe Energy Corp. (TSX:TGL; NASDAQ:TGA)
. Since then, the company has identified a new play called the
Nukhul Fairway, and it extends across several of TransGlobe's
acreage blocks in Egypt. The wells cost $1M-$1.5M, and some of
them are coming on at 1,000 barrels per day (bpd) and holding up
fairly well. It's become more of a developmental play where the
company just keeps punching holes, and production is going to
increase pretty rapidly this year.
Last year, about 30% of TransGlobe's production came from
Yemen-most of which has been shut down due to the political
turmoil there, but the Egyptian production has ramped-up so
strongly that it's already eclipsed the Yemen production. This
has allowed the company to keep its guidance that originally
included Yemen. I expect that to continue this year, and I like
the strong cash flow that's associated with the wells TransGlobe
is drilling right now. There's just a lot of upside there and a
lot of strong cash flow backing up the stock. So, TransGlobe is a
company I am still very excited about.
Amazing that the stock could be up 76% over the past 52 weeks
with the shutdown in Yemen, which was producing 2,300 bpd.
The Egyptian play has a lot of running room, and it has more than
made up for the Yemen shortfall. Eventually, Yemen will become
straightened out. I don't know if it will be three months from
now or six months from now, but that production will come back. I
am not counting on it, and I can get a good valuation without it
at the current stock price level. So, I think there's a lot of
upside for TransGlobe based on the rapid production increase in
Egypt and possibly bringing Yemen back online later this
Ok, you're in Egypt and the Alberta Bakken in Canada. Where else
in the world are you currently looking?
Well, the Colombian oil companies have been hit hard over the
last six months, after having been a little frothy last year.
We're now starting to figure out which ones are the real players
and which ones are not. The premier oil company in Colombia is
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. (TSX:PRE;
. I still think it has the best land package with more than 10
million acres for exploration upside. But what I really like
about Pacific Rubiales is that the stock has been beaten down a
bit and there are some very strong cash flows. It will increase
production by about 20% to more than 110,000 boe/d by year-end,
and I have it generating over $2B in EBITDA (Earnings Before
Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) this year. It has
a very strong, healthy balance sheet and it's proven the premier
operator in Colombia. So, for Colombia, I'm going to stick with
the "best of breed" and that's Pacific Rubiales.
The company has a $7B market cap and is buying back up to 4.3% of
its outstanding equity. That shows some confidence, I would
Yes, Pacific Rubiales has a strong balance sheet, which gives it
the ability to buy back stock when its value is not reflected in
the market. I agree with management, and I think the stock has
tremendous value here. It's going to generate $2B in EBITDA this
year, and it's trading at about one-half the multiples that we
see here in the States. I like the stable production profile,
strong cash flow, management team and, like I said, I think this
is the blue chip of Colombia and a great way to play
Is there any place in the U.S. that you're looking?
Well, I like to go back to the old Permian Basin. It's been a
long-standing producing region for Texas. We still keep finding
new ways to get more oil out of the ground, as technology gets
better and we do horizontal drilling and multistage fracking. One
company I like, in particular, is
Approach Resources Inc. (
, which has some good reserves on the books.
What's gotten me excited is its new 130,000-acre Wolffork oil
shale play. The first wells have just recently been announced and
the horizontal wells are producing 200-300 bpd. I think the
ultimate recoveries on these wells could be as high as
200,000-300,000 bpd. I should also mention that
EOG Resources (
is just north of that play and is seeing a little better rates in
the 400- to 500-bpd range on its first producers, and it's also
Apache Corporation (APA)
is acquiring acreage in the area. So, there's a lot of running
room with 130,000 acres in Approach's portfolio, and the company
believes it has derisked about 70,000 acres of it-more than 1,000
locations. The returns on these wells are going to be good, and
they're only going to get better as Approach works down the
learning curve. It fits my preferred profile, as you have some
base reserves to kind of get a conservative valuation of maybe
$20/share. You have a lot of upside and running room as this new
play is being developed.
Is there anything else interesting you'd like to hit on?
Well, I would like to mention one speculative name in Colombia. I
know we already talked about one with a larger market cap,
Pacific Rubiales, but the other one that has gotten my attention
Canacol Energy Ltd. (TSX:CNE)
, which has about 10,000 bpd light oil production. That is good
for both cash flow and funding for growth initiatives. But it
also has one of the best heavy oil land packages that I've seen
in the Putumayo Basin, and that's something that's going to take
some time to derisk. Once the company derisks this, there's a lot
of upside to the heavy oil component of the company-and it makes
it an extremely attractive acquisition target. I do like the fact
that Canacol has some good cash flow to back up its valuation. I
think it's an excellent acquisition candidate.
It's been a pleasure speaking with you today, Adam.
Adam R. Michael
, 36, founded
, a California registered investment advisor that manages the
Platform Energy Fund. Mr. Michael has over 10 years of
experience in the energy industry in various capacities. With
the majority of his career based in Houston, Texas, he is able
to use his energy background and industry contacts alongside
his investment experience to identify energy investment
opportunities in geopolitically stable countries with
attractive geological prospects and fiscal regimes. Mr. Michael
has a bachelor's degree in industrial distribution from Texas
A&M University (1997) and an MBA from Rice University
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1) George Mack of
The Energy Report
conducted this interview. He personally and/or his family own
shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview:
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are
The Energy Report:
3) Adam Michael: I personally and/or my family own shares of the
following companies mentioned in this interview: DeeThree
Exploration, Approach Resources, Pacific Rubiales and TransGlobe.
I personally and/or my family am/are paid by the following
companies mentioned in this interview: None.
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