Diabetes is no longer solely an American epidemic.
The Journal of the American Medical Association just released
a study that shows 11.6% of Chinese adults have the debilitating
disease, surpassing America's 11.3%. With a population topping 1
billion, China is now home to more than 100 million people
suffering from diabetes -- a third of the global diabetes
And with emerging markets gaining more access to middle-class
amenities such as high-fat food, the trend is accelerating. The
International Diabetes Federation projects that more than 550
million people will be diagnosed with diabetes by 2030, up from
371 million diabetes patients in 2012. That's a huge opportunity
for the global leader in diabetes medication and treatments.
Not only is this market leader home to five of the top 10
selling diabetes medications in the world, it's also developing a
deep pipeline of next-generation diabetes drugs and is protected
by a huge competitive moat. That has driven an outsize gain of
58% in the past two years:
Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:
is the undisputed global leader in the diabetes market. The
company's impressive product portfolio is home to five of the
world's 10 best-selling diabetes medications. That has helped
Novo capture 48% share in the insulin market, 46% share in the
modern insulin market and 27% of the total diabetes care
The company's dominance in the diabetes care market has been
driven by its flagship product, called NovoLog in the U.S. and
NovoRapid outside the U.S. The fast-acting insulin application
used before eating to control blood sugar levels is the
third-largest diabetes drug in the world, recording revenue of
$2.8 billion in 2012. Although NovoLog sales have moderated in
recent years, recent third-quarter results saw sales increase a
respectable 8% from the previous year.
In terms of growth, Novo's Type 2 diabetes drug Victoza has
been leading the pack. In spite of booking $1.8 billion in
revenue in 2012, sales jumped 20% from the previous year in
recent third-quarter results. Although that is impressive sales
growth for a blockbuster drug with close to $2 billion in annual
revenue, growth was trending above 30% in the first half of the
year. That led Novo to announce it will be adding 400 new U.S.
sales reps for 2014. That sets the stage for increasing sales of
Victoza as the company has plans to file for a new FDA-approved
indication on Victoza at the end of the year.
But Novo isn't resting on its laurels. The company is using
its market-leading status and deep pockets to develop a robust
pipeline of next-generation diabetes drugs and applications.
In May, Novo filed for European Union (
) approval of its Type 2 diabetes drug lDegLira, a combination of
its Victoza and Tesiba medications. That would create an entire
new continental market for Nova to tap into with an
It has another Type 2 diabetes drug called Semaglutide
currently in Phase III testing that is expected to be completed
by 2016. It also has an obesity drug called Liraglutide 3 MG that
recently completed Phase III testing and is expected to be
submitted for regulatory review in the U.S. and EU at the end of
Novo will leverage its industry-leading portfolio and pipeline
to tap into high-growth emerging markets, particularly China and
its 114 million diabetics. The company has been operating in
China since the 1960s and invested $400 million in an insulin
production facility in Tianjin in 2008.
The good news is driving consensus estimates calling for 21%
earnings growth this year and 11% in 2014 and average annual
earnings growth of 14% in the next five years, more than double
the industry average of 6%.
Risks to Consider:
Novo Nordisk will face a number of expiring high-revenue
patents in the next five years. Its Victoza drug is also being
Eli Lilly's (NYSE:
Dulaglutide. Although Dulaglutide isn't yet commercially
available, it poses a threat to long-term sales growth of
Action to Take -->
Nova is the undisputed global leader in the fast-growing diabetes
drug market. That has earnings projected to grow 14% annually in
the next five years, more than twice the industry average of
6.2%. But in spite of that bullish growth projection, Nova's
forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 19 is in line with the
industry average. That makes NVO a buy anywhere under $220.
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