The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed
an in-line rise in natural gas supplies, as the commodity's brisk
use for power generation in the face of summer temperatures were
offset by strong production growth. However, on a bearish note,
the build was ahead of the five-year average levels, thereby
narrowing the deficit with the benchmark.
About the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - brought out by the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday since 2002 -
includes updates on natural gas market prices, the latest storage
level estimates, recent weather data and other market activities
The report provides an overview of the level of reserves and
their movements, thereby helping investors understand the
demand/supply dynamics of natural gas. It is an indicator of
current gas prices and volatility that affect businesses of
natural gas-weighted companies and related support plays.
Analysis of the Data
Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states
rose by 72 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Jun 28,
2013, within the guided range (of 70-74 Bcf gain) as per the
analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of
McGraw-Hill Financial Inc.
). But the increase - the twelfth injection of 2013 - exceeded
both last year's build of 41 Bcf and the 5-year (2008-2012)
average addition of 71 Bcf for the reported week.
Despite past week's build, the current storage level - at 2.605
trillion cubic feet (Tcf) - is down 491 Bcf (15.9%) from the last
year and is 30 Bcf (1.1%) below the benchmark five-year average.
Natural gas stocks hit an all-time high of 3.929 Tcf last year,
as production from dense rock formations (shale) - through novel
techniques of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing -
remained robust. In fact, the oversupply of natural gas pushed
down prices to a 10-year low of $1.82 per million Btu (MMBtu)
during late Apr 2012 (referring to spot prices at the Henry Hub,
the benchmark supply point in Louisiana).
However, things have started to look up in recent times. This
year, cold winter weather across most parts of the country
boosted natural gas demand for space heating by
residential/commercial consumers. This, coupled with flat
production volumes, meant that the inventory overhang has now
gone, thereby driving commodity prices to around $4.40 per MMBtu
in Apr - the highest in 21 months.
Following this, natural gas demand went through a lean period,
with the end of the winter heating season and ahead of the peak
cooling loads for summer. In this timeframe, the commodity
experienced a number of above-average builds, thereby pulling
down prices again.
With hot weather expected to prevail over the country during the
next few weeks, leading to strong electricity draws to run air
conditioners, the commodity's price may experience another upward
This, in turn, is expected to buoy natural gas producers,
particularly low cost suppliers like
Ultra Petroleum Corp.
), and big players including
Chesapeake Energy Corp.
Exxon Mobil Corp.
With the financial incentive to produce the commodity and the
subsequent improvement in the companies' ability to generate
positive earnings surprises, they are likely to move higher from
their respective Zacks Ranks.
As of now, Ultra Petroleum and Exxon Mobil are Zacks Rank #3
(Hold) stocks, while Chesapeake currently retains a Zacks Rank #2
CHESAPEAKE ENGY (CHK): Free Stock Analysis
MCGRAW HILL FIN (MHFI): Free Stock Analysis
ULTRA PETRO CP (UPL): Free Stock Analysis
EXXON MOBIL CRP (XOM): Free Stock Analysis
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