570% In 10 Years... Here's How It's Done

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Back in June, I first introduced you to Michael J. Carr's groundbreaking investment research.

I told you a little about his history (he retired as a Lieutenant Colonel in the Air Force before managing $200 million) and how he was working on a project that used a few simple trading techniques to help investors see bigger returns in the stock market.

But at the time, his research wasn't finalized. I couldn't jump the gun and go into too much detail.

Of course, now that it is finalized (he's been using it to give successful stock recommendations in his Maximum Profit advisory for nearly six months now), we'll talk about some ways he's learned to beat the market -- and how you can use them too.

By using the same stocks recommended by Nathan Slaughter, Amy Calistri, Andy Obermueller and the rest of our StreetAuthority experts (stocks that many of you already own), Mike generated a 570% return in his decade-long test which measured from 2003 to 2013. And he did it without using complicated tools like derivatives, options or futures. It's a system that anyone can follow.

There was Mike's win on Costco (Nasdaq: COST ) , where his system scored 34.0%... PVR Partners (NYSE: PVR ) , which gained 77.9%... and Taseko Mines (NYSE: TGB ) and its 241.3% gain in a little over seven months . Mike's system flagged all of these winners -- each gleaned from a StreetAuthority newsletter portfolio -- during his decade-long backtest.

In total, Mike calculated his system turned $100,000 into $670,613 during the decade -- 20% of which came from dividends alone. And in between June 2012 and June 2013, his system would have earned 50.8% for investors, versus 16.9% for the S&P 500.

I know people want to know more, so I asked Mike to share the details about his research to give StreetAuthority readers the scoop.

Bob: Can you explain what exactly you discovered?

Michael: I've made a career out of trading. But I know many people think "trading" is a dirty word. So to prove that a few simple trading techniques can help people make significantly more in the stock market, I decided to apply a system I created to the current holdings in StreetAuthority's newsletter portfolios.

By using the same stocks held by Nathan, Amy, Andy and others, the back-tested results of my system showed an annual return of 21.5% from 2003 to 2013, compared with about 7% in the S&P 500. Over the entire decade-long test period, the total return for my system was 570%.

Bob: How did you do it?

Michael: I applied a few simple trading techniques that anyone can follow.

First, I start only with stocks currently held within StreetAuthority's various portfolios. This ensures I'm focusing on the very best, most fundamentally sound investments that our experts have found.

From there, I run every holding through a test of "relative strength."

Relative strength simply compares the past six-months' performance of a stock with the entire market. If a stock is rising faster than 70% of the market, then it passes this part of my test.

Why focus on this? If you want to make money the fastest way possible, you want to buy stocks that are already on their way up. It's like the difference between waiting at a bus stop or hopping on a moving train.

If a stock passes this test, then I look at the strength of its cash flow per share.

Cash flow measures the amount of money coming into a business. It's the lifeblood of any company. This is the money a business uses to buy new factories, pours into research and development, or delivers back to its investors via dividends and share buybacks.

I focus on a stock only if it's seeing cash flow per share rising faster than 70% of all available stocks.

Even after accounting for relative strength and cash flow growth, my system will only rank a maximum of 10 stocks as "buys." Only 10 stocks from the dozens that our staff of experts recommends -- and the thousands traded on the market. That's the cream of the crop.

Bob: Doesn't "trading" require a lot of buying and selling, not to mention racking up commissions?

Michael: Absolutely not. I think it's a misnomer anytime you mention "trading." Most people envision day trading, where individuals move in and out of stocks quickly.

My back test of this strategy registered about two trades per month during the past decade. The average holding period for a stock was 10 months. I'd be willing to bet most "long-term" investors invest for shorter time periods than that right now.

Bob: How important are high-yield stocks to your strategy?

Michael: While my Maximum Profit system doesn't specifically look for income stocks, nearly a third of the stocks that are potential buys currently have a yield greater than 4%. Overall, more than two-thirds of the stocks that I look at pay a dividend.

What's interesting about this group of companies is that the dividends are sustainable. For the high dividend stocks , 96% of the companies have cash flow that exceeds the dividend. Meanwhile, only 70% of stocks on the broader market that are currently paying any dividend have enough cash flow to maintain their payouts.

This means that dividends we find with this strategy are safe and companies should have the resources to keep paying them even if the economy stutters.

Bob: Where can people learn more?

Michael: My team has created a special presentation that outlines everything you need to know. It has the complete details of my research, more on how the system works and more about the specific winning stocks this system has found.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.


This article appears in: Investing , Investing Ideas , Stocks

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