Look around world and it's getting harder and harder to find
safe havens with country-specific ETFs these days. It's not just
Europe that's the problem, though it should be noted the
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (NYSE:
EPV
) is looking particularly stylish these days.
There's a plethora of problems on every other continent, too.
Well, Antarctica gets a pass because penguins and polar bears
haven't yet discovered the wonders of sovereign debt, credit
default swaps and no traders from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:
JPM
) live there.
The charts don't lie. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
(NYSE:
VTI
) is a mess. The all world ex-U.S. equivalent, the Vanguard Total
International Stock Index ETF (Nasdaq: VXUS), has an uglier chart
and uglier recent performance.
With that, let's play "Dora the Explorer" and go searching for
some country-specific funds that could fall another 10% from
their current levels.
Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSE:
IDX
)
Around here, we don't pretend to be Monday morning quarterbacks.
In other words, we own up to our flubs. Have we previously made
bullish comments about Indonesia
?
Yes, and we're not going to run away from those comments or
even change course. That said, IDX, the largest Indonesia ETF,
closed just above $28 today and the chart indicates there's a gap
from October that needs to be filled in. That wouldn't represent
a 10% decline, but the charts of IDX and the iShares MSCI
Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (
IDX
) are bearish and a 10% decline for both is not out of the realm
of possibility.
iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE:
EWZ
)
We nailed this one, saying earlier this month
that EWZ was getting dangerously close to bear
market territory
. That forecast has proven accurate. EWZ closed just above $54 on
Monday, but the chart is so weak that a return to the October
2011 low below $49 is possible.
There are macroeconomic concerns facing Brazil right now
and problems pertaining to some of EWZ's marquee
holdings that say the path of least resistance here is lower
.
iShares MSCI France Index Fund (NYSE:
EWQ
)
If there was anyone reason to be bullish on the iShares MSCI
France Index Fund (NYSE:
EWQ
), it may have gone out the window with Monday's 2.6% drop on
volume that was better than double the daily average. France's
fundamental woes are well known now and EWQ's
technical outlook is downright dreary at
moment
.
iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund
(NYSE:
ENZL
)
The unheralded iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index
Fund has sharply outperformed the iShares MSCI Australia Index
Fund (NYSE:
EWA
) year-to-date, but with EWA showing vulnerability recently, it's
hard to be bullish on ENZL.
New Zealand's retail sales fell in the first quarter, the kiwi
is trading near multi-month lows and Reserve Bank governor Alan
Bollard even acknowledged New Zealand's economy is vulnerable to
a global downturn and deteriorating credit conditions in other
countries. A slide of 10% or more for ENZL might be a tad
ambitious, but this ETF is poised for more downside.
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