Look around world and it's getting harder and harder to find
safe havens with country-specific ETFs these days. It's not just
Europe that's the problem, though it should be noted the
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (NYSE:
) is looking particularly stylish these days.
There's a plethora of problems on every other continent, too.
Well, Antarctica gets a pass because penguins and polar bears
haven't yet discovered the wonders of sovereign debt, credit
default swaps and no traders from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:
) live there.
The charts don't lie. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
) is a mess. The all world ex-U.S. equivalent, the Vanguard Total
International Stock Index ETF (Nasdaq: VXUS), has an uglier chart
and uglier recent performance.
With that, let's play "Dora the Explorer" and go searching for
some country-specific funds that could fall another 10% from
their current levels.
Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSE:
Around here, we don't pretend to be Monday morning quarterbacks.
In other words, we own up to our flubs. Have we previously made
bullish comments about Indonesia
Yes, and we're not going to run away from those comments or
even change course. That said, IDX, the largest Indonesia ETF,
closed just above $28 today and the chart indicates there's a gap
from October that needs to be filled in. That wouldn't represent
a 10% decline, but the charts of IDX and the iShares MSCI
Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (
) are bearish and a 10% decline for both is not out of the realm
iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE:
We nailed this one, saying earlier this month
that EWZ was getting dangerously close to bear
. That forecast has proven accurate. EWZ closed just above $54 on
Monday, but the chart is so weak that a return to the October
2011 low below $49 is possible.
There are macroeconomic concerns facing Brazil right now
and problems pertaining to some of EWZ's marquee
holdings that say the path of least resistance here is lower
iShares MSCI France Index Fund (NYSE:
If there was anyone reason to be bullish on the iShares MSCI
France Index Fund (NYSE:
), it may have gone out the window with Monday's 2.6% drop on
volume that was better than double the daily average. France's
fundamental woes are well known now and EWQ's
technical outlook is downright dreary at
iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund
The unheralded iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index
Fund has sharply outperformed the iShares MSCI Australia Index
) year-to-date, but with EWA showing vulnerability recently, it's
hard to be bullish on ENZL.
New Zealand's retail sales fell in the first quarter, the kiwi
is trading near multi-month lows and Reserve Bank governor Alan
Bollard even acknowledged New Zealand's economy is vulnerable to
a global downturn and deteriorating credit conditions in other
countries. A slide of 10% or more for ENZL might be a tad
ambitious, but this ETF is poised for more downside.
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