In the article below I reveal the names and ticker symbols of 12
widely-held companies that could go bankrupt in the near future.
But first I need to give you a bit of background...
Every year, our independent research team here at
looks over thousands of potential stock picks. We spend countless
hours analyzing companies, looking for any signs that a stock is
either a good or bad investment.
Most of the companies we research have bothbullish andbearish
factors to consider. But in a few rare instances -- literally less
than 1% of the time -- we find a handful of stocks that boast some
of the best business models on earth. These rare companies enjoy
huge sustainable competitive advantages, pristine balance sheets,
amplecash flow , and more often than not, they pay healthy
dividends. When we find rare gems like these, we like to buy these
stocks and hold them forever. In fact, we recently published a
brand-new research report titled
The 10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever
, and it has become the single most popular piece of research in
our company's decade-long history. (More on this report below.)
But sometimes we find companies that fall on the other side of
the spectrum... companies that are in such poor shape that they are
at risk of going bankrupt. These companies often sport unnaturally
high debt levels compared to their capital base, and we think you
should avoid these stocks at all costs. If by some means they've
already ended up in your portfolio, you might want to consider
dumping them now.
Below you'll find a list of a dozen companies that I believe are
at risk of failing.
By far, this is the most controversial article I've ever
published. I'm obviously not making any friends onWall Street by
exposing these names, and my publisher has already fielded a number
of angry phone calls from some of the companies that appear on the
That said, since I'm continuing to publish this information for
the benefit of our valued
readers, I want to make sure that I cover ALL of my bases here.
First, there's a difference between a company that's "at risk"
of failing and a company that's "guaranteed" to fail. The stocks I
profile in this article are "at risk" of failing -- they're not
"guaranteed" to fail. In fact, many of the stocks on my list below
may not fail.
Second, the metric I'm using to determine a stock's level of
"risk" is called the "current portion oflong-term debt ."
Specifically, I'm looking for companies that have debts due within
the next 12 months that exceed the total cash balance that each
company has on hand. This metric has proven to be a highly accurate
indicator of a company's health. In fact, it's already helped me
correctly identify several "at risk" stocks before they went on to
fail. That's why I use it.
However, like any other financial metric out there, the "current
portion of long-term debt" has its limitations. Although a company
might have a high level of debt coming due in the next year, it
does notguarantee that it will fail.
I'll explain more about this later in today's article. In the
meantime, let's get started...
During the past generation, a reasonable level of debt has
always been seen as appropriate, because balance sheets were able
to withstand a typicalrecession . Yet all that changed in 2008.
)debt load crashed the company, forcing it into bankruptcy, while
many other companies such as GE (
), Ford Motor (
), Hertz (
) and Domino's Pizza (
) saw their stocks plunge on fears a bankruptcy filing would be
necessary if economic conditions worsened.
Thankfully, many companies wised up and have been taking steps
to strengthen their balance sheets. But not everyone got the
message. Some companies still carry too much debt and might run
into trouble if the U.S.economy slips back into recession. These
companies will need to make large payments to handle their debt,
and right now they are at risk of not having enough cash to meet
potential obligations. Typically, a company can simply roll over
that debt and push out the time frame when debts come due. But a
weak economy would make this task much harder as lenders grow
That's why it's so important to pay attention to balance sheets.
Lots of debt is only a problem if the debts are soon coming due.
For example, mattress maker Sealy Corp. (ZZ) has a very weakbalance
sheet , with almost $800 million in debt and less than $100 million
in cash. But management wisely rolled over its debt while it could,
and now the company faces no major repayments until 2014
But if a company's "current portion of long-term debt" -- that
is, debts due within the next 12 months -- exceeds cash on hand,
you need to listen to how management plans to address the problem
because these companies could be at risk of failing. I went in
search of companies that may have just such a problem (less cash
than near-term loan obligations). I also added Canadian media firm
Thomson Reuters (TRI) to the mix because its weak balance sheet is
just above that threshold. The table below highlights a group of
companies that are at risk of having to declare bankruptcy in 2012
if their lenders are in no mood to extend them more loans. Take a
This is just a short list. These stocks had red flags on the
balance sheet as of September 30. The currentearnings season may
bring more troubled companies into this group. And if the economy
slips into recession, as some -- but not all -- economists
anticipate, then the list will only grow in the coming months.
Some companies may be hard-pressed to avoid a date with a
bankruptcy judge. Take American Apparel (APP) as an example. The
company is saddled with more than $100 million in debt, much of
which is slated forrepayment in the next few quarters, but it has
less than $10 million in cash on hand. American Apparel generates
roughly $70 million in gross profits every quarter, but has $80
million in quarterlyoverhead . As the losses pile up, American
Apparel's balance sheet could weaken further.
American Apparel has already raised $22 million in fresh cash
this year, but that might not be enough to keep the wolves at bay.
Billionaire investor Ron Burkle is one of several investors said to
be looking at acquiring some of the company's debt -- not equity.
That's often a precursor to eventual hostile moves to take control
of the company by calling in debts, wiping out existing
shareholders in the process. Short sellers may also be anticipating
an eventual bankruptcy filing, because they hold more than 5
millionshares in short accounts
Even seemingly healthy companies can get tripped up by a lousy
economy. Right now, Thomson Reuters carries a hefty, but
manageable, $7.8 billion in debt. This shouldn't be a problem, as
noted byEBIT coverage of about 5.6 (which means Thomson Reuters'
quarterly cash flow is 5.6 times higher than its interest
payments). But what if the economy stumbles and demand for the
company's professional-grade subscription services starts to slump?
EBIT coverage would quickly shrink, forcing the company to meet
with lenders to make sure Thomson Reuters doesn't run out of cash.
This scenario is quite unlikely in the next quarter or two, but
bears close scrutiny in a worsening economic environment.
Risks to Consider: Some of these stocks already trade at levels
that suggest imminent financial distress. If they're able to shore
up their weak balance sheets, then short sellers may boost the
stocks byshort covering . And as I mentioned earlier, "current
portion of long-term debt" is a good metric to consider, but it
isn't perfect. It's important to realize that this metric only
points to increased risk of financial trouble, and it does not
imply that failure is imminent or inevitable.
Action to Take -->
If you own any of the 12 "at risk" stocks we've identified above,
then consider selling them now, because all of them could tumble in
a hurry. Instead, we'd suggest looking at the rare 1% of companies
in our coverage universe that fall on the entirely OPPOSITE end of
Wecall them "Forever" stocks. Put simply, this is the only set
of stocks we know of that you can buy today and hold for the rest
of your life. When you own them, you no longer need to worry about
things likeinflation ordeflation ...bear markets or recessions...
flash-crashes or rising interest rates.
One of our favorite "Forever" stocks has plowed through eight
bear markets and returned 194,000% since 1972. Every $100 invested
back then, would be worth $194,000 right now. Today, the company is
raising itsdividend , spending billions to buy back its own shares,
making smart acquisitions, and is the dominant leader in a $30
Maybe that's why
and his investment team at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) bought
7.7 million shares of this "Forever" stock.
This sort of "worry-free" performance is exactly the reason why
the research staff here at StreetAuthority has put so much time,
effort, and money into completing our list of 10 "Forever"
If you want to read all our research on this select group of
"Forever" stocks, we've put everything together in a brand-new
research report titled
The 10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever
for readers of our
Top 10 Stocks
advisory -- which is edited by Paul Tracy, StreetAuthority
co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist.
to learn more about
Top 10 Stocks
and how you can claim your copy of
The 10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever
-- David Sterman
David Sterman does not personally hold positions in any
securities mentioned in this article. StreetAuthority LLC does not
hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
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