The number of merchandise listings on eBay (
), sites such as eBay.com, Half.com, and Shopping.com, has risen
dramatically over the past few years from around 1 billion in 2003
to around 2.9 billion in 2009  driven by increasing online
retail penetration and rising Internet use globally.
eBay competes with other e-commerce sites like Amazon (
), Wal-Mart (
), Overstock (
), and Blue Nile (
The number of merchandise listings
is a key driver for the company as eBay
Marketplaces constitutes close to 50% of eBay's stock price
based of our estimates. The average Trefis member forecast predicts
listings ahead of our base case corresponding with a 10% increase
in the price estimate as outlined below. We currently have a
Trefis price estimate of around $31 for eBay's
, about 5% above the current market price of around $30.
More Online Buyers and Sellers
eBay Marketplaces' core proposition is to bring buyers and
sellers together for a low intermediation fee. eBay does this by
providing great selection and value for buyers while offering
sellers access to a large audience with cost effective marketing.
As a result, nearly 40% of the 2.9 billion Listings on eBay's
Marketplaces platform in 2009 converted into actual sales. 
With traditional retailers like the U.K.'s Saville Row,
Jigsaw and Ed Hardy starting to sell more merchandise on eBay, we
see this trend towards e-commerce benefiting eBay markedly. The
growing number of Internet users globally, which is expected to
touch 2 billion by end of 2010, will also encourage sellers to have
more sales listings on e-commerce sites like eBay.  According to
a recent report by ComScore, U.S. retail e-commerce spending
reached $32.1 billion in Q3 of 2010 up 9% versus a year ago. 
This indicates that consumer spending has started to pick up again
- a good sign for eBay.
Rising Online Retail Penetration
Online retail penetration still has tremendous scope for growth.
As of 2009, online penetration of electronics & general
merchandise in the US was around 10% versus 5.7% internationally.
 The number of active users on the eBay site has increased from
48 million in 2004 to over 90 million in 2009.  In addition, the
number of listings per active user has gone up in response to
eBay's efforts to simplify the fee structure.
As consumers spend more online, we expect merchandise listings
to increase. See how our estimates compare to the average
member forecast below.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for number of merchandise
listings on eBay indicate an increase from 3.5 billion in 2010 to
5.4 billion by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an
increase from 3.1 billion in 2010 to 4.5 billion by the end of the
Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 9%
to the Trefis price estimate for eBay's stock.
You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own
view, and see the sensitivity of eBay's stock to Number of
Merchandise Listings on eBay.
complete analysis for eBay's stock is here
1. The Number of Merchandise Listings on Ebay is reported in
the company's SEC filings.
Ebay Sell Through Statistics online
3. Global Internet users to top 2 billion this year,
comScore Reports Q3 2010 U.S. Retail E-Commerce
Spending Up 9 Percent vs. Year Ago
5. Data on US online penetration of Media & EGM is
assimilated from the US Department of Commerce.
6. Ebay 2009 10-K filings