Many companies are handling these tough times in a defensive
crouch. Keeping sales stable and expenses at a minimum enables them
to survive until the
economy
gets back on its feet. But select companies are able to take
advantage of these challenging times, aggressively seeking ways to
boost sales.
I screened the entire membership of the S&P 500
Index
to find companies that have been able to defy the slowdown and keep
powering the top line to new heights.
The screen revealed a number of oil and gas names that are expected
to derive higher sales from firming energy prices in 2011. But it's
unclear if the economic growth will be sufficient to boost energy
prices enough to help these companies sharply boost sales in 2011,
as analysts currently suspect. So, I've removed names such as
EOG Resources (
EOG
)
,
Apache (
APA
)
,
Range Resources (
RRC
)
,
Chevron (
CVX
)
and others from this list.
As the table below highlights, all of these companies are expected
to boost sales at least +20% in the next
fiscal year
. Any further economic weakness could cause these forecasts to
slip, so it pays to do further research on the companies before
deciding to buy these stocks. Some companies such as
Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG)
and
Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG)
are not economically sensitive, while others such as
Cummins (
CMI
)
and
PACCAR (Nasdaq: PCAR)
certainly are.
|
Company
|
Recent Price
|
2010 Est. Sales ($mill.)
|
2011 Est. Sales ($mill.)
|
Year-over- Year Growth
|
2011 P/E
|
First Solar
(Nasdaq: FSLR) |
$124.65 |
$2,579 |
$3,510 |
+36%
|
15.5 |
PACCAR
(Nasdaq: PCAR) |
$42.37 |
$9,788 |
$12,097 |
+32%
|
17.5 |
Micron Tech
(Nasdaq: MU) |
$7.37 |
$8,703 |
$11,174 |
+28%
|
4.0 |
JDS Uniphase
(Nasdaq: JDSU) |
$10.46 |
$1,372 |
$1,723 |
+26%
|
15.5 |
Amazon
(Nasdaq: AMZN) |
$126.56 |
$33,213 |
$41,482 |
+25%
|
36.0 |
| Apple (Nadaq: AAPL) |
$251.79 |
$63,154 |
$77,990 |
+23%
|
14.5 |
Cognizant Tech
(Nasdaq: CTSH) |
$58.94 |
$4,462 |
$5,482 |
+23%
|
22.5 |
Titanium Metals
(Nasdaq: TIE) |
$19.21 |
$874 |
$1,071 |
+23%
|
28.0 |
Celgene Corp.
(Nasdaq: CELG) |
$56.07 |
$3,446 |
$4,178 |
+21%
|
17.0 |
Cummins
(
CMI
) |
$77.97 |
$12,920 |
$15,528 |
+20%
|
12.5 |
| Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG) |
$317.00 |
$1,401 |
$1,683 |
+20%
|
30.0 |
| *Source: Thomson Reuters |
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
vs.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
The table highlights a stark contrast between these two tech
giants. Both companies are expected to boost sales roughly +25% in
2011, but Amazon's
P/E
ratio based on 2011's projected
earnings
is roughly 150% higher than Apple's. That's counter-intuitive when
considering Apple recently just surged past analyst forecasts,
while Amazon lagged them. Some suggest Apple is the one that
deserves to trade with a far richer forward multiple.
But just looking at 2010 and 2011 results is not the best way to
assess these stocks. Instead, you need to look at where these
companies are in terms of their long-term growth cycle. Are they
close to reaching a peak in terms of profits? Or do they possess
substantial growth prospects into the middle of this decade? Also,
do near-term profits truly reflect the long-term value being
created?
To its credit, Apple has indeed been a remarkable growth story --
which should continue into next year -- but competition continues
to build, especially from Google, as I've noted before. [See:
Apple's Biggest Fear
]
Yet in relation to those questions just asked, Amazon has
established a long-term growth plan that requires large amounts of
upfront spending, but could yield the next multi-billion dollar
growth categories. Amazon's CEO Jeff Bezos is fully aware that as a
customer relies on the company for more and more goods, it becomes
even easier to lure them into new categories. Already buying books
and lawn furniture from Amazon? Why not add cosmetics to your order
and have Amazon hold off on further shipping charges?
This is why the company keeps testing new concepts -- in hopes of
eventually selling so many goods that the delivery guy comes by
once or twice a week. In fact, Amazon is now testing delivery of
groceries. Others have tried and failed before, but Amazon may
finally have reached the necessary scale. [
Why Amazon's near-term earnings strength is not a
useful barometer
]
Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG)
Health care stocks can offer a high degree of safety in tough
markets, and sector plays that are in the midst of a strong growth
spurt can help investors play offense and defense at the same time.
One of my favorite health care names -- thanks to its steady growth
-- is Celgene, which focuses on treatments for auto-immune
disorders and various cancers. The company's drug portfolio is
anchored by Revlimid and Thalomid, both of which treat myelomas --
blood cancers that emanate from bone marrow.
Management rode the coattails of those drugs and saw sales rise at
least +50% in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Sales growth cooled to +19% last
year, so the company acquired Gloucester Pharma, which has an
approved drug for the treatment of t-cell lymphoma, in January,
2010. Celgene's $3 billion acquisition of
Abraxis Pharma (Nasdaq: ABII)
should also close in coming weeks, which should give the company
greater exposure to the breast cancer treatment market. Back in
June, when the deal was announced, Citigroup's Yaron Werber noted
that "the deal is not cheap but has attractive commercial potential
in an overlooked asset. This is exactly the right time and kind of
asset to invest in."
Those deals, along with continued organic growth among its existing
drugs, should push sales up more than +25% in 2011, according to
analyst's forecasts. The company still has ample cash left to find
additional tuck-in acquisitions to keep sales moving higher in
2012. Sooner or later, Celgene is going to be the target of larger
suitors in the pharmaceutical industry, thanks to its increasing
heft.
Action to Take -->
These companies are finding ways to grow during tough times, which
means that if economic conditions improve beyond 2011, any
headwinds become tailwinds and set the stage for further growth.
Amazon's stock is a risky, but potentially game-changing play and
should hold appeal to investors looking for one of the best
potential growth stories during the next five years. Celgene, in
contrast, represents a solid investment in terms of near-term
results and reasonable fundamentals.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith
Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering
European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at
Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read
More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold
positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority